Since when does occam's razor have to do with the truth? It's just easier to communicate simpler things. It's a communication hereustic, not a 'objective truth hereustic'.
I'd say it leads people to fall into the bias of selective skepticism. I hope that's the right term! I'll chuck in some links to sequence posts soon. Edit: here it is!. Though I'm somewhat hesitant to embrace EY's position since I'd imagine one would end up like that donkey that can't decide whether to eat the bale of hay to the left or to the right without privileging a hypothesis. In summary:
A motivated skeptic asks if the evidence compels them to accept the conclusion; a motivated credulist asks if the evidence allows them to accept the conclusion.
Unexpected find! Yesterday I found lots of gore videos on /b/. I told myself that I should watch them because conventional media was blinding me to the horrid truths of the world and this would make me less biased, more risk aware and more cautious. Instead, I felt really really depressed. I don't know if it preceeded or proceeded from /b/, since I don't tend to go there unless I feel somewhat purposeless (or I'm looking for dirty things. Anyway, today I was wondering about whether my suicidality could have come from fear that I would end up tortured or in lots of pain, and my suicidal thoughts where avoidance coping from percieved hopelessness and the extreme negative value of painful outcomes. Today I did some research on other people. Avoidance coping is actually associated with decreased suicide/depression risk. Contrary to what everyone says, and many depressed, suicidal people think, they aren't actually trying to escape from some global negative judgement about the world.
If I had simply gone with the simplest answer, that I was avoidance coping, that wouldn't have been any more true than the answer after more research.
This essay claims to refute a popularized understanding of Occam's Razor that I myself adhere to. It is confusing me, since I hold this belief at a very deep level that it's difficult for me to examine. Does anyone see any problems in its argument, or does it seem compelling? I specifically feel as though it might be summarizing the relevant Machine Learning research badly, but I'm not very familiar with the field. It also might be failing to give any credit to simplicity as a general heuristic when simplicity succeeds in a specific field, and it's unclear whether such credit would be justified. Finally, my intuition is that situations in nature where there is a steady bias towards growing complexity are more common than the author claims, and that such tendencies are stronger for longer. However, for all of this, I have no clear evidence to back up the ideas in my head, just vague notions that are difficult to examine. I'd appreciate someone else's perspective on this, as mine seems to be distorted.
Essay: http://bruce.edmonds.name/sinti/