Comment on Open thread, Aug. 10 - Aug. 16, 2015

Wed, 12 Aug 2015 15:27:43 GMT

The main restriction would be to pick "important" predictions, whatever "important" means here.

I don't know if there is any useful algorithm here. The space of possibilities is vast, black swans lurk at the outskirts, and Murphy is alive and well :-/

You can try doing something like this:

List the important (to you) events or outcomes in some near future

List everything that could potentially affect these events or outcomes.

and you get your universe of "events of interest" to assign probabilities to.

I doubt this will be a useful exercise in practice, though.

Discuss