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Sherincall comments on Open thread, Aug. 10 - Aug. 16, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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CIA's The Definition of Some Estimative Expressions - what probabilities people assign to words such as "probably" and "unlikely".
CIA actually has several of these articles around, like Biases in Estimating Probabilities. Click around for more.
In hindsight, it seems obvious that they should.