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gjm comments on Open thread, Aug. 17 - Aug. 23, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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A side note, but my immediate reaction to reading that was "that's overconfidence", though it's quite possible I'm interpreting "financial crash" more grandly than you intended. If I define it — just to try to be more concrete, albeit still pretty fuzzy — as an event as bad as the 2007-8 financial crisis, I'd put a probability ≈5% on that happening by 2015's end.
(Adding the conjunction that explicitly nationalist and/or communist parties gain power actually wouldn't reduce my probability that much, because that already happens; see the Scottish Nationalist Party winning 56 of 59 Scottish seats in this year's general election, and AKEL's performance in Cyprus's 2006 & 2008 elections.)
It may be worth noting that the SNP is quite unlike the far-right nationalist parties I think skeptical-lurker is worried about. They're a party of the left rather than of the right, they aren't outrageously far to the left (at least by European standards), and their "nationalism" is all about getting out of the UK rather than about keeping out immigrants, throwing out black people, and other such traditional policies of nationalist parties.
Indeed. (And my impression is that Demetris Christofias wasn't much of a stereotypical communist as president of Cyprus, either; he seems to've concentrated on the dispute with Turkey.) I was trying to also illustrate another knotty aspect of rigorously operationalizing a broad political prediction like this: which precise kinds of nationalist/communist party gaining power would count as fulfilling the prediction?