I have rewritten the header to this post to make it clear that you should read the post in main first and only look at this one if it is required.

Technically the problem is very simple, but it does frequently fool people. If you write out the logic of it like in the above post, then people will very easily get the right answer. This post is meant to be a verbose explanation of the solution for people who don't believe that you should choose the king. You can read this post if you want to know why people get fooled by this simple problem.

This is the example as it is written in the academic literature

Only one statement about a hand of cards is true:

1. There is a King or Ace or both.
2. There is a Queen or Ace or both.

Which is more likely, King or Ace?

Most people say Ace.