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Open Thread - Aug 24 - Aug 30

7 Post author: Elo 24 August 2015 08:14AM

If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.


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Comments (318)

Comment author: Elo 24 August 2015 08:14:59AM 3 points [-]

Meta: This thread was late; the usual guy was busy. I guess I am volunteering to do it for MrMind.

Comment author: Dahlen 24 August 2015 01:15:14PM 2 points [-]

That's fine, but could you please change the font to the default one? Comic Sans is... ehh, not the best choice for most things.

Comment author: Elo 24 August 2015 01:45:46PM 5 points [-]

My eternal apologies - I don't see it these days because I browse with this - Comic sans browsing for chrome. https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/comicsans/gjdmedkdcpefbnnkiogiiejipfepjdhm?hl=en

It's delightful.

Comment author: cleonid 24 August 2015 08:23:30AM 6 points [-]
Comment author: NancyLebovitz 24 August 2015 08:52:56AM 11 points [-]

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-interleaving-effect-mixing-it-up-boosts-learning/

Argues for mixing up what you're learning (at least within a subject) rather than trying to just focus on one thing at a time.

Comment author: richard_reitz 24 August 2015 06:25:44PM *  2 points [-]

For those interested in further reading: Robin Hanson's take, popularly-written book.

Comment author: btrettel 24 August 2015 09:40:14PM *  4 points [-]

Interleaving is great. After reading about this a few months ago, I realized how I did Anki was bad. I had separate decks for each subject. To interleave, you could put everything in one deck, but you'd only be able to organize by tag then.

I figured out a better way to interleave in Anki. Create a filtered deck which takes X random cards from all your other decks. You can make X as big or small as you want.

Incidentally, this also made me realize how much of a cue studying by deck was. The subject of some cards was no longer obvious because of how I wrote them, so I've slowly been disambiguating them. This is good, I think, as in reality you often don't have such a strong cue that says "use knowledge from X subject".

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 25 August 2015 05:58:23AM 7 points [-]

The value of interleaving is evidence that a lot of conventional education is about teaching people to endure boredom, and this is a very bad mistake.

Comment author: Viliam 25 August 2015 08:14:46AM 0 points [-]

Oh, yeah. Boredom is almost synonymous with school. :(

Comment author: [deleted] 26 August 2015 04:48:07AM 1 point [-]

It's weak evidence for the first, proposition, but I don't think it's any evidence for the second. I suspect you're right, but to play devils advocate, it could be that training/selecting for grit could be more important for future success than the learning is.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 26 August 2015 08:33:55AM 1 point [-]

It's at least a little evidence that training people to endure boredom is a bad idea, since boredom is part of inefficient learning.

School has enough prestige that I think a lot of people come out of it believing that if they can't learn in a school like environment, they can't learn at all. Sometimes they just apply it to one subject, sometimes to all subjects commonly taught in school, sometimes they give up on learning.

Comment author: Clarity 24 August 2015 09:58:12AM 0 points [-]
Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 24 August 2015 07:46:02PM 1 point [-]

But it is. See the long list at page 284. See also the section about data sources on page 331.

The document points to World Development Indicators 2013 for more detailed references and data which is are more accessible by being placed after each corresponding section,

Comment author: Artaxerxes 24 August 2015 11:16:28AM *  1 point [-]

I'll ask again: where are the videos from the various EA Global events?

If stuff hasn't been recorded or even if stuff just hasn't been uploaded yet, I feel like the EA community is probably missing out on a fair amount of publicity and views and attention by not having their relevant content out and viewable promptly, while it's all still fresh. This is especially true since I hear some big names went to some of these events.

I am assuming effective altruists want their point of view to spread and become more popular. It seems to me that they are not being particularly effective at allowing this to occur so far. The events themselves may or may not be rather quite good to make up for this, but how would I know.

Comment author: Elo 24 August 2015 11:36:39AM 1 point [-]

http://www.eaglobal.org/livestream This is what I know of. I don't know if they needed to post-edit videos; but if they did - that takes time.

Comment author: Artaxerxes 24 August 2015 12:11:31PM 0 points [-]

Wonderful, thanks.

Comment author: Elo 24 August 2015 12:13:36PM 0 points [-]

unfortunately it appears to be one video...

Comment author: [deleted] 24 August 2015 11:37:44AM *  3 points [-]

Is sexual relationship between two consenting adult siblings ethically okay and should it be legal? It's an interesting ethical problem because there are so many complicated dimensions and it could go either way. I think generally when it comes to social issues our society seems to head in a right direction, people are becoming more tolerant of people who choose differently and so on, but incest between siblings seems to become maybe more taboo even though there are some rational justifications you could make for it.

Some have made parallels to homosexuality as in it doesn't directly hurt either of the sides of this kind of relationship. There are social problems, I mean if I got to choose I wouldn't like any of my relatives to get together because that would evoke feelings of disgust, unnecessary drama and awkwardness, but I think I would have said the same thing about homosexuality 70 years ago. In theory inbreeding shouldn't be a problem, but in practice it probably is. Even though contraception is widespread in this day and age, if large number of siblings have sex with each other, some of them will inevitably end up having kids.

German ethics council decided that it should be legal because it's a person's fundamental right and people's right to self-determination is more important than the protection of your family.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 24 August 2015 11:44:57AM 2 points [-]

In theory inbreeding shouldn't be a problem, but in practice it probably is.

In both theory and in practice, it is a problem: the offspring are more likely to have faulty genomes than the offspring of unrelated people.

But why are you raising this issue? The practical answer is known, and adequately accounts for the feelings around it.

Comment author: [deleted] 24 August 2015 11:56:37AM *  1 point [-]

In both theory and in practice, it is a problem: the offspring are more likely to have faulty genomes than the offspring of unrelated people.

You could make having offspring illegal. Why must these people have kids? You can get contraception cheaply everywhere nowadays. Does it hurt people more if they can't have kids, than if it were completely illegal? By making relationships between siblings legal, but making offspring illegal you would appreciate people's right to self-determination but still take care of the practical issues in some way.

But why are you raising this issue?

Because it's good ethical practice to try to work out what to do with controversial issues when the answer is not completely clear. There's a reason why that German ethics council thinks it should be legal.

Comment author: Creutzer 24 August 2015 03:14:25PM *  1 point [-]

The practical problem is, of course, enforcing this prohibition on procreation. Forced sterilisation is difficult to sell and problematic because the subjects might wish to have children with other people. RISUG might be a solution, once it becomes available.

I'm not sure what I think of the fact that everyone is concerned with the genetics of possible offspring in the case of incest, but nobody minds two chronically depressed, highly neurotic people, one of whom has a hereditary autoimmune condition, procreating... (The domain of quantification for the slightly hyperbolic "everyone" and "nobody" here is the general public rather than LW. I suspect that many in this community would, in fact, mind the latter case as well.)

Comment author: RichardKennaway 24 August 2015 07:46:44PM -1 points [-]

Because it's good ethical practice to try to work out what to do with controversial issues when the answer is not completely clear.

I see no visible controversy around the issue.

There's a reason why that German ethics council thinks it should be legal.

I don't read German except with more effort than this is worth, although I note that it begins by mentioning a case of a brother and sister having four children together and public consternation over their prison sentence. What reasons does that report give? It is that it considers the German law as it stands an unsatisfactory way to deal with the undesirability of incest, or that society should recognise incestuous relationships as equal to all others? There is a big difference. How does the report propose to handle the negative consequences of inbreeding? Or have you not read any further than ryot.org?

Comment author: Elo 24 August 2015 12:12:42PM 0 points [-]

I made comments to a similar effect in a recent OT http://lesswrong.com/lw/mgr/open_thread_jul_13_jul_19_2015/ckh8 :)

Comment author: [deleted] 24 August 2015 12:41:30PM 0 points [-]

To be clear, in my heart I feel that I'm against this because for example if people in our family got together it would probably destroy our family. That's what makes it so interesting because it goes so much against my feelings, but it's still something that could be right in principle.

Comment author: Elo 24 August 2015 12:48:26PM 0 points [-]

I wouldn't go so far as saying it is "right" but certainly "harmless" in principle, once you remove procreation from the equation.

Comment author: CWG 25 August 2015 02:00:55AM *  0 points [-]

it would probably destroy our family

That's about your family's attitudes, rather than about anything intrinsic to the act.

I would be surprised and possibly grossed out if this happened in my own family, but that would be the moral equivalent of a vistigial limb,* something to get past.

*I was going to say appendix, but the appendix does actually have a function).

Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 24 August 2015 12:51:32PM *  2 points [-]

Epistemic status: anally extracted

Is sexual relationship between two consenting adult siblings ethically okay

I think it's probably like drunk driving -- most of the times it doesn't result in anything bad, but there's a non-negligible chance of outcomes so bad that the expected value still comes out negative.

should it be legal?

I haven't given much thought to that, but for some reason your proposed solution of "legal unless you have offspring" sounds more reasonable to my System 1 than the analogous "legal unless you have a crash" in the case of drunk driving.

Or maybe a better analogy would be any driving = any sex between siblings, drunk driving = sex between siblings without contraception? Then again, a law against sex between siblings without contraception doesn't sound easy to enforce to me.

Comment author: garabik 24 August 2015 01:35:46PM 0 points [-]

I think it's probably like drunk driving -- most of the times it doesn't result in anything bad, but there's a non-negligible chance of outcomes so bad that the expected value still comes out negative.

Or like drunk driving on your own property, where there is no other traffic nor pedestrians, and you are alone in your car (well, ok, you are in the car with another person, but s/he is drunk as well, knows you are drunk, knows the risks of drunk driving and half of the time replaces you behind the wheel). Should it be illegal? (assuming there are no (health) insurance issues if you crash&injure yourself)

Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 25 August 2015 08:07:57AM 2 points [-]

Well, in that case you two cannot affect anyone else but yourselves, whereas in the incest case... Hm, does creating a new person count as affecting them? That's probably model-dependent... Hm...

Comment author: Romashka 25 August 2015 02:48:21AM 0 points [-]

Enforcing it then would mean castrating at least one of them when they appeal to the authorities for a marriage certificate or something. Doesn't seem a viable solution.

Comment author: Jiro 24 August 2015 03:21:24PM 1 point [-]

Would you then permit homosexual incest, which doesn't produce children?

Comment author: DanielLC 25 August 2015 04:05:29AM 0 points [-]

I would.

Comment author: philh 24 August 2015 03:40:59PM *  -1 points [-]

Supplemental questions that I don't know the answers to: how significant are the effects of inbreeding? Are they often so bad that it would be better for an inbred child to never have existed? How does that compare to having non-inbred children with known high risks of genetic defects? To what extent can the effects be tested for (both before and during pregnancy)?

I'd be very surprised if inbreeding was so bad that careful consensual incestuous sex, with the intent of getting an abortion if pregnancy does occur, wasn't worth the risk.

Edit: Okay, inbreeding seems to be much worse than I'd anticipated.

Comment author: gjm 24 August 2015 05:55:54PM 2 points [-]

There are two separate questions here. One is: for a given pair of closely related people who very much want to have sex with one another, is doing so (carefully) worth the risk? The other is: should we adjust our societal norms to make things easier for people in that situation?

It seems quite plausible to me that the answers might be "yes, sure" and "heck no", respectively because, as you say, if lots of siblings or other closely related people have sex then some of them will have children.

Slightly-parallel question: if someone is addicted to heroin and can procure some, should they take it? The answer might be yes, at least some of the time, but we probably still want norms that discourage people from getting addicted in the first place.

(I wonder whether laws and other norms against incest provide some protection against abuse by parents and elder siblings. That shouldn't be necessary -- they should be protected by laws against abuse and against sex with people almost certainly too young for properly informed consent -- but maybe there's some extra deterrent effect.)

Comment author: Username 24 August 2015 06:11:28PM 1 point [-]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7404730.stm

Professor Alan Bittles, director for the centre for human genetics in Perth, Australia has collated data on infant mortality in children born within first-cousin marriages from around the world and found that the extra increased risk of death is 1.2%.

In terms of birth defects, he says, the risks rise from about 2% in the general population to 4% when the parents are closely related.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 24 August 2015 07:17:50PM 0 points [-]

However, cousin marriages might typically be in cultures which accept or promote cousin marriages. This might not work out the same way for pairings from non-cousin marriage cultures.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 24 August 2015 06:47:17PM 4 points [-]

According to this:

http://dare.uva.nl/cgi/arno/show.cgi?fid=152307

A sibling-incest child looses 28 IQ points. The risks of all genetic disorders rises massively, from p^2/4 to about p/8, so if the prevalence of carriers of a recessive disease (p) is 1%, then the disease probability would rise by a factor of 50.

Comment author: Lumifer 24 August 2015 07:28:04PM 2 points [-]

A sibling-incest child looses 28 IQ points.

That's almost two standard deviations and looks iffy to me. Yes, I followed the link, the main study resulting in this number is behind the paywall, but I suspect that the sample wasn't very representative.

Basically, for a sub-population with a recessive trait that leads to mental retardation the outcomes are going to be massively different from the outcomes for a sub-population without such a recessive trait.

Comment author: gwern 24 August 2015 08:07:46PM *  10 points [-]

Available the usual places: https://www.dropbox.com/s/8gv0el0anfyymed/1971-seemanova.pdf / http://moscow.sci-hub.bz/092ee3d082e9cffd04b7064c36ba808a/10.1159%40000152391.pdf (Personally, I'm impressed she managed to get that big a sample in just Czechoslovakia. Creepy. Also, note that's only one of the studies being meta-analyzed.)

It's very clear that inbreeding is really bad: to give some examples, it drives species extinct within generations, its effects are long-term and underestimated, inbreeding can result in 20+ IQ points loss in other populations such as in India and of course we all know about the Habsburgs (which was so extreme that "Charles II was moderately more inbred than the average among the offspring from brother-sister matings").

a sub-population without such a recessive trait.

What makes you think there are any human populations none of whose recessive and mutation loads affect cognition?

Comment author: Lumifer 24 August 2015 08:32:45PM *  2 points [-]

I'm impressed she managed to get that big a sample in just Czechoslovakia.

Her sample covers 37 years (1933-1970) and, looking at the sources, she utilized official reports including maternity homes, district courts, etc. so the sample is all Czechoslovakia had officially.

What makes you think there are any human populations none of whose recessive and mutation loads affect cognition?

I don't think this. Intelligence is strongly polygenic, as far as I know, so for everyone it's a mix of something good and something bad. But that gene mix is uneven in populations, so some people (low-IQ) get more bad and less good genes, while some people (high-IQ) get more good and less bad.

The thing is, I would expect incest to strongly correlate with very low IQ (your basic drives are still there, but social norms are... less binding). Besides, it's easier for smarter people to not be caught. So if you select a population which engages in incest (and is detected), you are co-selecting for low IQ and for a larger proportion of bad-for-IQ genes. And the larger that proportion, the worse are the chances (growing superlinearly, too) for the child to have normal IQ.

Do note that in the study sample only 4 females and 2 males among parents attended secondary school, the rest didn't have any education beyond elementary school (out of 141 mothers and 138 fathers).

P.S. Thanks for the link to the study.

Comment author: gwern 24 August 2015 08:46:18PM 4 points [-]

Do note that in the study sample only 4 females and 2 males among parents attended secondary school, the rest didn't have any education beyond elementary school (out of 141 mothers and 138 fathers).

Poor countries are like that. The people in the Indian studies and elsewhere won't be too highly educated either.

So if you select a population which engages in incest, you are co-selecting for low IQ and so for a larger proportion of bad-for-IQ genes. And the larger that proportion, the worse are the chances (growing superlinearly, too) for the child to have normal IQ.

Shouldn't affect within-population comparisons... Although since prevalence of cousin-marriage differs drastically from country to country, the inbreeding effect could be driving a nontrivial amount of between-population differences in intelligence. (And of course, it's not like intelligence is unrelated to national wealth either.)

Comment author: Lumifer 24 August 2015 08:59:34PM 1 point [-]

Poor countries are like that

This is Europe, though, and Communist governments tend to be big on education.

Shouldn't affect within-population comparisons.

Within which population? The control group involves one parent "from the outside", so regression to the mean kicks in and the chance of the recessives finding a pair falls dramatically.

I am not arguing that incest has no significant consequences. I am arguing that if you take children of incestuous unions where both parents have reasonable IQ (say, >85), the mean IQ of children would NOT drop by 28 points.

Comment author: gwern 24 August 2015 09:46:27PM 2 points [-]

This is Europe, though, and Communist governments tend to be big on education.

It is one of the poorest parts of Europe, and Communist governments tended to be big on a lot of things they couldn't deliver.

Within which population? The control group involves one parent "from the outside", so regression to the mean kicks in and the chance of the recessives finding a pair falls dramatically.

If you're comparing within an Indian population, then the much higher rates of inbreeding aren't the confound; all you have is the remaining selection effect, and that's must be small because anything else would drastically contradict the animal and other breeding experiments, and the estimates from genomic methods.

I am arguing that if you take children of incestuous unions where both parents have reasonable IQ (say, >85), the mean IQ of children would NOT drop by 28 points.

It would probably drop by more like 25 points, looking at the weighted averages. (For the surviving children, that is.)

Comment author: Lumifer 25 August 2015 02:17:25AM *  3 points [-]

It is one of the poorest parts of Europe, and Communist governments tended to be big on a lot of things they couldn't deliver.

Communist governments delivered on that one.

Take a look here, specifically pages 21 and 23. The secondary education in Eastern Europe was more prevalent than in Mediterranean countries and Great Britain + Ireland (but less than in Nordic countries and Central Europe). And Czechoslovakia was one of the better Eastern European countries.

If you're comparing within an Indian population

I went and looked at the Jammu & Kashmir study and it is more convincing than the Czechoslovak study. Hm. It seems my scepticism about the 20+ IQ points drop was unfounded, <screech of rusty metal> changing my mind... </screech of rusty metal> :-)

But why did my intuition didn't like the large magnitude of IQ drop? I think because it implies that intelligence is very fragile and very easy to genetically screw up. But if the IQ drop is valid, then intelligence is very fragile. Hmm...

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 24 August 2015 04:17:33PM 0 points [-]

From what I've heard, the genetic risks have a lot to do with how genetically similar the forebears of the couple are. If all the grandparents are from the same small region, it's a lot riskier than if the grandparents are from different continents.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 24 August 2015 06:57:06PM 1 point [-]

I think this is true, but its pretty risky even in the best case.

Comment author: cleonid 24 August 2015 09:33:07PM 1 point [-]

I don’t understand why the origin of grandparents should matter.

To the best of my knowledge, the main problem with incest is recessive alleles. For example, if the grandfather’s genotype is ”aA” (where “a” is a very rare recessive allele) and his children (parents’ generation) mate with each other, then there is a relatively high chance (1/16) that the grandchildren would be of “aa” genotype (which might be extremely deleterious or even lethal). Having another grandparent from a different continent should not change this.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 25 August 2015 06:03:02AM 0 points [-]

Why wouldn't having grandparents from different continents make rare alleles less likely to be reinforced?

Comment author: cleonid 25 August 2015 12:48:56PM 1 point [-]

There is some reinforcement, but it’s not very significant.

For example, consider an Ashkenazi Tay-Sachs carrier who marries a person from China. If their children mate, the chance that the grandchildren would have Tay-Sachs disease is (1/2)^4=1/16. If instead of a Chinese, this Ashkenazi Tay-Sachs carrier marries another Ashkenazi (who have ~0.03 chance of being a carrier), the chance that the grandchildren would have Tay-Sachs disease is almost the same, ~1/16*1.12. In absence of incest, a grandchild of a Tay-Sachs carrier would have a ~0.03/8 (i.e. ~17 times smaller) chance for getting the disease.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 25 August 2015 02:06:07PM 0 points [-]

Ashkenazi Jews is too large a category. Try Ashkenazi Jews from a region where Tay Sachs is common for all the grandparents.

Comment author: cleonid 25 August 2015 03:22:23PM 1 point [-]

I don’t think this is possible.

Tay-Sachs allele used to slightly increase evolutionary fitness in heterozygotes (i.e. people who carry just one Tay-Sachs allele). This allowed the allele to increase in frequency until ~3% of Ashkenazis became its carriers. But once the local frequency becomes high enough the negative effects (the risk that a random couple produces children with two Tay-Sachs alleles) balance the positive effects on fitness. Thus in any region it should be impossible for Tay-Sachs to be common for all the grandparents.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 24 August 2015 06:40:50PM *  1 point [-]

Even though contraception is widespread in this day and age, if large number of siblings have sex with each other, some of them will inevitably end up having kids.

A second problem is that the energy and emotions and time they devote to their incestuous relationship isn't going to a relationship where they might have kids.

5 years ago, I would have thought logically, and said that if they don't want kids and have access to effective contraception then it isn't a problem. But now I would think probabilistically, and say that even if they are 99% sure they don't want kids, they are about 50% likely (assuming standard levels of overconfidance) to change their minds around 30, and now they are really heavily invested in a relationship which cannot lead to healthy kids, and the sister's biological clock is running out of time.

So, it's certainly a bad idea, although that doesn't automatically mean it should be made illegal, depending upon whether you believe citizens should have the right to make bad decisions.

Comment author: DanielLC 27 August 2015 06:15:44AM 2 points [-]

The same reasoning would suggest that bisexuals should only get into same-sex relationships. Would you say that as well?

I disagree with the idea that they can't have kids. They can adopt. The girl can go to a sperm bank.

Comment author: Viliam 24 August 2015 08:00:58PM *  8 points [-]

(trigger warning: rape)

How much can we be sure, if this would be made legal, that the consent of the adult siblings would mean the same thing as the consent of two random unrelated people. If someone wants to have sex with their sibling who is not really happy about that idea, how much opportunity would they have to pressure them into "consent", if they merely have to wait until their 18th birthday, as opposed to the opportunity to pressure into "consent" someone who is not a relative?

Even if the person who wants to have sex with their sibling waits with the coitus until the sibling's 18th birthday, they still have plenty of opportunity to "groom" them before they are 18. Imagine siblings with large age difference, where the older sibling uses their mental superiority to "brainwash" their younger sibling, to ruin their other relationships and make them socially isolated, to make them emotionally dependent, so that when the younger sibling becomes 18, they are not in a position to say "no".

Also, many people at 18 are not really ready to be economically independent on their family. Imagine a family with two children, one strongly loved by the parents, the other disliked by the parents. When the unloved child becomes 18, their sibling can blackmail them into sex by threatening that if they refuse, the popular child will convince the parents to throw the unpopular child out on the street. (Yes, blackmail is technically illegal, but you would have to prove it. Also, if you are the unpopular child, getting the popular child thrown in jail will not help you get your parents' love; you will still remain on the street.)

In families there is too much power disparity: parents vs children, but also some children vs other. If we care about consent in sex, it is better to not leave open any paths that would allow abusing this power disparity to enforce "consent". Making sex between close relatives illegal is a simple Schelling point.

Comment author: [deleted] 24 August 2015 11:42:02AM 3 points [-]

I remember seeing a paper about a woman (still alive) with basically absent frontal lobe, yet only slight mental retardation and no serious problems, a month or two ago, but can't find it now. Does anybody have a link?

Comment author: Clarity 24 August 2015 11:47:38AM *  0 points [-]

Valproate is the most underated cognitive enhancer. Though it's probably bad for your sperm. It's like borrowing your future children's intelligence.

Comment author: Artaxerxes 24 August 2015 12:15:16PM 1 point [-]

From this description alone, it sounds like a good idea if you don't plan on having kids.

Comment author: Clarity 27 August 2015 12:12:25AM *  -1 points [-]

Hahaha. You're quite right. Can you help me explain that to my wife?

Comment author: Dorikka 24 August 2015 12:57:54PM *  1 point [-]

Personal experience that it is useful or just from the indirectly linked papers?

Also, note that it may potentiallly insta-fuck your liver.

Comment author: [deleted] 26 August 2015 04:55:34AM 0 points [-]

I've heard people say that it makes them sluggish and dumb - is this first hand experience you're talking about?

Comment author: Clarity 26 August 2015 10:54:08AM 0 points [-]

Although I do have first hand experience, that was to remedy specific other issues so I wasn't generalising about that.

My recommendation comes from the little positive cognitive enhancing effects I've read about, and a lack of any reports to the contrary.

Comment author: Clarity 24 August 2015 12:17:28PM *  1 point [-]

How many of the following do you identify with, strangers?

 Is preoccupied with details, rules, lists, order, organization, or schedules to the extent that the major point of the activity is lost.
Shows perfectionism that interferes with task completion (e.g., is unable to complete a project because his or her own overly strict standards are not met).
Is excessively devoted to work and productivity to the exclusion of leisure activities and friendships (not accounted for by obvious economic necessity).
Is overconscientious, scrupulous, and inflexible about matters of morality, ethics, or values (not accounted for by cultural or religious identification).
Is unable to discard worn-out or worthless objects even when they have no sentimental value.
Is reluctant to delegate tasks or to work with others unless they submit to exactly his or her way of doing things.
Adopts a miserly spending style toward both self and others; money is viewed as something to be hoarded for future catastrophes.
Shows rigidity and stubbornness.

For me it's the 1st, 6th, 7th and 8th

Now that I've recognised these personality traits, and being young, I can consciously overide them. Yay!

Comment author: Username 24 August 2015 01:10:45PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: NancyLebovitz 26 August 2015 08:40:08AM 4 points [-]

I identify with hating having to scroll sideways to read something.

Comment author: gjm 26 August 2015 08:51:59AM 6 points [-]

For those who are preoccupied with lists that can actually be read and hold to the overly strict standard that preformatted text shouldn't be used where bulleted lists are intended, here's that list again in more readable form:

  • Is preoccupied with details, rules, lists, order, organization, or schedules to the extent that the major point of the activity is lost.
  • Shows perfectionism that interferes with task completion (e.g., is unable to complete a project because his or her own overly strict standards are not met).
  • Is excessively devoted to work and productivity to the exclusion of leisure activities and friendships (not accounted for by obvious economic necessity).
  • Is overconscientious, scrupulous, and inflexible about matters of morality, ethics, or values (not accounted for by cultural or religious identification).
  • Is unable to discard worn-out or worthless objects even when they have no sentimental value.
  • Is reluctant to delegate tasks or to work with others unless they submit to exactly his or her way of doing things.
  • Adopts a miserly spending style toward both self and others; money is viewed as something to be hoarded for future catastrophes.
  • Shows rigidity and stubbornness.

And for those who overconscientiously think that one should cite one's sources, I'll add that these are the DSM-5 criteria for OCD, and that having four of them is supposed to indicate OCD.

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 24 August 2015 02:00:06PM *  14 points [-]

Do any digital nomads read LessWrong? What region are you in? How did you setup your remote work? What is the best/worst feature of the lifestyle? What was the biggest surprise? Is anyone else thinking about trying out the lifestyle?

Comment author: CWG 25 August 2015 01:48:31AM 5 points [-]

I tried it, but at the time I found it very hard to focus. it's a lot like working at home – you need to be very good at creating your own routines and structure, and managing your own projects.

If that's not you, develops those skills first. Getting work where you train those skills is a good approach.

Comment author: tetronian2 24 August 2015 03:26:59PM *  3 points [-]

Suppose someone offers you the chance to play the following game:

You are given an initial stake of $1. A fair coin is flipped. If the result is TAILS, you keep the current stake. If the result is HEADS, the stake doubles and the coin is flipped again, repeating the process.

How much money should you be willing to pay to play this game?

Comment author: Lumifer 24 August 2015 03:42:54PM *  -2 points [-]

As formulated, zero -- under the rules you posted you never win anything. Is there an unstated assumption that you can stop the game at any time and exit with your stake?

Comment author: tetronian2 24 August 2015 03:52:39PM *  2 points [-]

I guess I didn't formulate the rules clearly enough--if the coin lands on tails, you exit with the stake. For example, if you play and the sequence is HEADS -> HEADS -> TAILS, you exit with $4. The game only ends when tails is flipped.

Comment author: Lumifer 24 August 2015 04:13:18PM *  0 points [-]

Also notice that as formulated ("You are given an initial stake of $1") you don't have any of your own money at risk, so... And if the game only ends when TAILS is flipped, there is no way to lose, is there?

If the first $1 comes from you, you are basically asking about the "double till you win" strategy. You might be interested in reading about the St.Petersburg paradox.

Comment author: jkaufman 24 August 2015 06:11:02PM 3 points [-]

Reading the wikipedia article on the St Petersburg paradox, that's exactly the game tetronian2 has described.

A casino offers a game of chance for a single player in which a fair coin is tossed at each stage. The pot starts at 2 dollars and is doubled every time a head appears. The first time a tail appears, the game ends and the player wins whatever is in the pot. Thus the player wins 2 dollars if a tail appears on the first toss, 4 dollars if a head appears on the first toss and a tail on the second, 8 dollars if a head appears on the first two tosses and a tail on the third, 16 dollars if a head appears on the first three tosses and a tail on the fourth, and so on. In short, the player wins 2k dollars, where k equals number of tosses (k must be a whole number and greater than zero). What would be a fair price to pay the casino for entering the game?

Comment author: tetronian2 24 August 2015 08:23:34PM 1 point [-]

Yep. I don't think I was ever aware of the name; someone threw this puzzle at me in a job interview a while ago, so I figured I'd post it here for fun.

Comment author: DanielLC 25 August 2015 04:04:41AM 1 point [-]

The money that's "at stake" is the amount you spend to play the game. Once the game begins, you get 2^(n) dollars, where n is the number of successive heads you flip.

Comment author: 9eB1 24 August 2015 04:18:43PM 1 point [-]

I was thinking that you should take into account the fact that if you got several trillion dollars, that only entitled you to half of America's resources, and if you got infinite dollars it would only give you 100% of America's resources. It turns out that similar notions have already been studied and the expected value calculated for them on Wikipedia (well, they just assumed that the bankroll was US GDP and didn't look at a quantity theory of money solution specifically, but same diff).

Comment author: jkaufman 24 August 2015 06:02:51PM *  10 points [-]

Outcomes:

1 flip --- $1 probability 1/2
2 flips -- $2 probability 1/4
3 flips -- $4 probability 1/8
4 flips -- $8 probability 1/16
...

The expected value doesn't converge but it grows extremely slowly, where almost all the benefit comes from an extremely tiny chance of extremely large gain. The obvious question is counterparty risk: how much do you trust the person offering the game to actually be able to follow through with what they offered?

If we think of this as a sum over coin flips, each flip you think is possible gives another $0.50 in expected value. So if you think they're probably only good for amounts up to $1M then because it takes 20 flips to pass $1M the expected value is $0.50 * 19 or $9.50. Similarly if you think they're good for $1B then that's 29 flips max for an expected value of $14.50. You could be fancy and try to model your uncertainty about how much they're good for, but that's probably not worth it. And you do want to take into account that someone offering something like this with no provision for how they'll handle extremely large payouts is probably not entirely on the level.

Expected value is also not the right metric here, since we all have diminishing marginal returns. Would you enjoy $1B 1,000x as much as $1M? Even if you're giving your winnings to charity there are still some limits to our ability to effectively use additional donations.

Short answer: $5. (This trusts them to be good for $1024, and is in a range where utility should still be pretty much linear in money.)

Comment author: Lumifer 24 August 2015 03:46:56PM 4 points [-]

This might be of interest to LW.

From the abstract:

Intellectual ability may be an endophenotypic marker for bipolar disorder. Within a large birth cohort, we aimed to assess whether childhood IQ (including both verbal IQ (VIQ) and performance IQ (PIQ) subscales) was predictive of lifetime features of bipolar disorder assessed in young adulthood. ... There was a positive association between IQ at age 8 years and lifetime manic features at age 22 – 23 years

Comment author: RichardKennaway 24 August 2015 05:03:47PM 7 points [-]

I'm not sure what "lifetime manic features at age 22 – 23 years" means. Lifetime, or between ages 22 and 23?

But the numbers:

There was a positive association between IQ at age 8 years and lifetime manic features at age 22–23 years (Pearson’s correlation coefficient 0.159 (95% CI 0.120–0.198), P>0.001).

I shall be generous and take the upper end of their range for the correlation, and round it up to c = 0.2.

The shared variance is c^2 = 0.04. That is childhood IQ "explains" (in the technical sense of that word) 4% of the variance of "lifetime manic features at age 22 – 23 years".

For the following calculations I assume, for no reason other than mathematical simplicity, that we are dealing with a bivariate normal distribution. However, I doubt the overall message would be very different for whatever the real distribution is.

The mutual information between the variables, is log2( 1/sqrt(1-c^2) ) = 0.0294 bits.

What can you do with 30 millibits? You might try to use IQ at age 8 to predict "lifetime manic features at age 22 – 23 years". How much will knowing the former narrow your estimate of the latter? The ratio (standard deviation conditional on that information)/(unconditional standard deviation) is sqrt(1-c^2) = 0.980. That is, the spread is 2% smaller.

Suppose you try to predict from IQ at age 8, whether their "manic features" will be above or below the average? By random guessing you will be right 50% of the time. By using that information, you will be right (1/π)acos(−c) of the time = 56%.

Perhaps, if the IQ is really high, the "manic features" will be more significantly above the average? In principle, yes, but in practice, not enough to matter. The probability that an individual has an IQ high enough to be 95% sure that they will be above average for "manic features" is 7.5 x 10^-14. Of course, the bivariate normal approximation cannot be observably accurate so far out, but I think it gives an indication of the scale of the matter.

The mathematics underlying the calculations can be found here. The figures at the end include a scatterplot of what c=0.2 looks like. That was the lowest correlation for which I thought it worth while to include in the tabulations.

Comment author: faul_sname 25 August 2015 06:38:58AM *  5 points [-]

I'm not sure, not having read the paper, but I would expect that "Lifetime manic features at age 22-23 years" means "number of manic features experienced in the time prior to 22-23 years of age" (i.e. we measured IQ of a bunch of 8-year-olds 15 years ago, and those people are now in the range of 22-23 years of age, and we ask how many manic episodes they've had in that time).

Comment author: RichardKennaway 25 August 2015 06:55:18AM 1 point [-]

Ah, that makes sense.

Comment author: Dorikka 24 August 2015 04:21:25PM 1 point [-]

A few nutrition-related questions:

  • Why does Soylent 2.0 have so much fat? They appear to be going for 45% of calories from fat, whereas the typical recommendation is 10%-35%.

  • Why does the Bulletproof stuff include so much saturated fat? It appears that the consensus is that saturated fat significantly increases blood cholesterol and arterial plaque formation - curious why such a deviation here.

Comment author: Lumifer 24 August 2015 04:47:52PM *  5 points [-]

It appears that the consensus is that saturated fat significantly increases blood cholesterol and arterial plaque formation

Nope -- that's a hotly debated topic. There used to be a consensus that saturated fat is bad, but AFAIK it doesn't exist any more.

In particular, the low-carb and paleo approaches to nutrition strongly assert that saturated fat is NOT bad -- that's why "Bulletproof stuff" involves a lot of it.

Comment author: Dorikka 25 August 2015 04:20:26AM 0 points [-]

Thanks. How does one go about learning more about this, preferably while encountering minimal bullshit on the way?

Comment author: Lumifer 25 August 2015 02:40:46PM *  3 points [-]

Well, there are basically two ways about it.

Way one is deciding that you will trust somebody, so you listen to what he/she/it says and you're done. Advantages: easy. Disadvantages: obvious.

Way two is reading through a lot of conflicting materials (mostly papers), filtering out people who are stupid, who have an axe to grind, who have been regurgitating cached thoughts for the last couple of decades, etc. and then trying to construct a mostly coherent picture out of what remains. Advantages: you will understand the field. Disadvantage: hard, expensive in time and effort, involves wading through rivers of bullshit.

I am not the trusting kind, so I read the papers :-)

Comment author: [deleted] 26 August 2015 04:57:30AM 0 points [-]

Someone really needs to make an Examine.com for nutrition.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 24 August 2015 04:21:28PM 4 points [-]

I have an impression that conscientiousness feels like an outside force. Instead of "I choose to tidy up/proofread my writing/tip the server", it's more like "the situation requires that I do the right thing".

Does this match other people's experience? Does conscientiousness feel more like an outside force than other behaviors?

Comment author: PhilGoetz 24 August 2015 10:13:57PM 0 points [-]

I don't think so... probably less so than other behaviors, in fact.

Comment author: Tem42 24 August 2015 11:52:56PM 2 points [-]

Often, yes, but this is highly dependent on the task -- and sometimes the sub-task. For example, when writing finding the correct word for an idea is motivating, but proofreading for spelling is a chore. I can name a good number of tasks that I do because I am internally motivated, including looking up definitions, washing my hair, organizing my bookshelves, making checklists and flowcharts, grocery shopping, gardening... but just as many (and probably more) that I don't do unless I really feel I need to because it is expected of me.

I think that part of this is that unmotivating tasks tend to stick in your mind as always present and demanding, but the things you enjoy doing are all too fleeting. It is also possible that you are unconsciously defining conscientiousness as "things you should do but don't want to", in which case by definition they will require an external force.

Comment author: BrassLion 26 August 2015 01:41:37AM 0 points [-]

This is exactly how conscientiousness feels to me - not wanting to do something but doing so because it's the Correct Action For This Situation. Generally, this applies to things that don't give me a direct, immediate benefit to do, like cleaning up after myself in a common space.

Comment author: Username 24 August 2015 04:26:33PM 5 points [-]

Heh. Qualify this under "crazy ideas". Chinese tech companies are motivating programmers by hiring cheerleaders. It would be interesting to know if this increases productivity. Do cheerleaders help improve results sports teams?

Comment author: Stingray 24 August 2015 05:53:31PM *  8 points [-]

That depends on what you consider to be the main purpose of a sports team - winning matches or providing entertainment and selling tickets to their games.

Comment author: Lumifer 24 August 2015 06:01:10PM 4 points [-]

They don't seem to be exactly cheerleaders. Their function seems to very similar to that of hostesses in nightclubs.

Comment author: WalterL 24 August 2015 07:28:15PM 13 points [-]

My instinct is that cheerleaders don't improve results for sports teams, but that that also isn't their function.

On the original topic, I've actually encountered the situation of "environment filled with dude programmers with poor social skills suddenly gets a few very attractive ladies who have incentives to be nice to them." My frat went co-ed senior year.

To put things mildly, productivity did not improve.

On the other hand, a lot more guys wanted to join up. So my guess is that the office cheerleaders do not make existing programmers more productive (and may in fact do the opposite), but that they may make the office more desirable as a work environment to prospective hires.

Comment author: cousin_it 24 August 2015 08:31:42PM *  5 points [-]

The best response to that article that I've seen so far:

Sure, blue balls always help me code better

-- burgerissues on reddit

Comment author: PhilGoetz 24 August 2015 10:10:41PM *  3 points [-]

Possibly. It depends what you hire them to do. See "The Wolf of Wall Street" for an example of effective (in the short term) motivation.

Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 26 August 2015 04:05:58PM 0 points [-]

Related:

  1. most people want to socialize with the opposite sex, and are unhappy (and hence unproductive) if they can’t;
  2. the conscious reasons for wanting to socialize with the opposite sex often have nothing to do with “fluid exchange” (to use the John Nash character’s phrase from A Beautiful Mind),
  3. let he (or she) who is without subconscious Darwinian motivations cast the first stone,
  4. human beings didn’t evolve to live their lives in an 85%-male environment,
  5. by the Pigeonhole Principle, not every straight male will be as lucky as I was to find a girlfriend in the remaining 15%, and
  6. computer science departments could attract and retain better people of both sexes if they felt less like monasteries or pirate ships.

-- Scott Aaronson

Comment author: Lumifer 26 August 2015 04:33:06PM 1 point [-]

Never saw a CS department that looked like a monastery. As to pirate ships, well... :-D

Comment author: redding 24 August 2015 04:37:41PM 1 point [-]

Not sure if this is obvious of just wrong, but isn't it possible (even likely?) that there is no way of representing a complex mind that is sufficiently useful enough to allow an AI to usefully modify itself. For instance, if you gave me complete access to my source code, I don't think I could use it to achieve any goals as such code would be billions of lines long. Presumably there is a logical limit on how far one can usefully compress ones own mind to reason about it, and it seams reasonably likely that such compression will be too limited to allow a singularity.

Comment author: [deleted] 24 August 2015 08:59:58PM *  3 points [-]

The ability to reason about large amounts of code seems to be more a memory and computation speed problem, than a logic problem. Computers already seem to be better than humans on these counts, so it seems like they may be better at understanding large pieces of code, once we have the whole "understanding" thing solved.

Comment author: DanielLC 25 August 2015 04:10:57AM 0 points [-]

There's certainly ways you can usefully modify yourself. For example, giving yourself a heads-up display. However, I'm not sure how much it would end up increasing your intelligence. You could get runaway super-intelligence if every improvement increases the best mind current!you can make by at least that much, but if it increases by less than that, it won't run away.

Comment author: jkadlubo 24 August 2015 07:21:56PM 6 points [-]

I had a realization today that does not grant a separate thread.

I'm reading RAZ and got to Mysterious Answers, specifically Explain/Worship/Ignore?

I have kids. Most people know that kids love the question "why?" (If you didn't know - now you do. My family of origin has a joke that the last question of a longest stretch was number 37: why is mummy chewing on the carpet?)

When my daughter asks "why", I give her some answers usually pondering how I can influence the direction of the questions and information that I give her*. But in light of Explain/Worship/Ignore I am doing the best thing - explaining, showing her that there are layers upon layers of the stuff in this world and that it's a good idea to investigate further and further.

This made me very proud in my parenting.

*e.g. when she asks "why is the bus going?", I can answer about engines or about the driver or about the route or about planning of communal transport etc.

Comment author: Tem42 24 August 2015 10:50:10PM 4 points [-]

Why questions are very good and should be encouraged! But also, it is worth improving the questions, in addition to just answering them. So if a child asks "why is the bus going?", you can ask for a clarification "Do you mean what makes it move? Or do you mean where is it going?"; this models clearer language and better communication skills, it helps the child get an answer to the specific question that they intended, and it prevents why-questions from becoming the default I'm-bored-so-I-will-say-why-until-people-get-sick-of-talking-to-me routine.

Sorry, I know that was slightly off-topic.

Comment author: Fluttershy 24 August 2015 07:30:42PM 2 points [-]

I've always been annoyed by how icky traditional sunscreen makes me feel, so I was happy to find out that there's a roll-on sunscreen that works reasonably well. I've used it a couple of times now, and while I wasn't outside for long enough that I would have burned when I used it in either case-- and therefore can't comment on the effectiveness of a single layer of the stuff-- I would say that applying it was much quicker and easier than applying traditional sunscreen. While applying sunscreen isn't the lowest hanging fruit in health interventions out there, it's still useful for reducing one's risk of death from melanoma (yay for living longer!).

Comment author: Lumifer 24 August 2015 07:46:16PM 1 point [-]

Have you tried spray-on sunscreen?

Comment author: Alicorn 24 August 2015 09:38:51PM 3 points [-]

I was told a while ago that Asian sunscreen is different and less greasy and I bought some Japanese sunscreen from the internet. It feels much better than the regular American stuff.

Comment author: Elo 24 August 2015 11:24:52PM 7 points [-]

Basic sunscreen is zinc. To get that into an applicable form it is usually put into an oil suspension. As mentioned you don't like the oil. You can also get alcohol based suspension sunscreens that feel a lot nicer; and sunscreen in spray form. The benefit of oil is that it doesn't wash off so easily. But there's no point being stuck with oil based sunscreen if they make you feel that uncomfortable

This link might help: http://www.skinacea.com/sunscreen/physical-vs-chemical-sunscreen.html#.VdunDbKqqko as should https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunscreen

Comment author: D_Malik 25 August 2015 04:08:43PM 0 points [-]

Sunlight increases risk of melanoma but decreases risk of other, more deadly cancers. If you're going to get, say, 3 times your usual daily sunlight exposure, then sunscreen is probably a good idea, but otherwise it's healthier to go without. I'd guess a good heuristic is to get as much sunlight as your ancestors from 1000 years ago would have gotten.

Comment author: Fluttershy 25 August 2015 08:22:23PM *  0 points [-]

This is something I'd eventually like to look into. Do you know which cancers sunlight protects against? Might sun exposure after one has applied sunscreen provide some protection against these cancers?

Comment author: [deleted] 26 August 2015 04:54:41AM 0 points [-]

I've seen so many claims about the benefit or lack thereof of sunscreen. Do you have a citation?

Comment author: Tem42 26 August 2015 11:37:45PM 1 point [-]

I've got your citations.. right here

Among Caucasians in the United States, cancer mortality for several prominent cancers, including cancer of the breast, prostate, and colon, shows a striking latitudinal gradient, with increased mortality rates among individuals residing in the northern states compared with individuals residing the southern states.

Devesa SS, Grauman MA, Blot, WJ, Pennello GA. Hoover RN, Fraumeni JF. Atlas of cancer mortality in the United States: 1950 to 1994. NIH Publication No. 99–4564, 1999.

This whole article is worth reading, and has a number of counter-intuitive findings.

Comment author: Ozyrus 25 August 2015 07:58:10AM *  4 points [-]

Are there any lesswrong-like sequences focused on economics, finance, business, management? Or maybe just internet communities like lesswrong focused on these subjects?

I mean, the sequences introduced me to some really complex knowledge that improved me a lot, while simultaneously being engaging and quite easy to read. It is only logical to assume that somewhere on the web, there must be some articles in the same style covering different themes. And if there are not, well, someone must surely do this, I think there is some demand for this kind of content.

So, feel free to link lesswrong-like series of blogposts on any theme, actually: that will be really helpful for me. P.S. In hindsight, i guess there may be some post here, on lesswrong, containing all these links I am looking for. If so, could anyone link me to it?

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 25 August 2015 02:12:50PM 2 points [-]

Eliezer used an approach of gradual but entertaining introduction so that a good many people stayed interested even though he was also encouraging them to make significant changes in the way they think. He also offered varied and interesting examples so that people understood what he meant.

I think you're overoptimistic about equivalent sequences for other subjects. I hope I'm wrong.

Comment author: OrphanWilde 25 August 2015 04:01:39PM 0 points [-]

http://eco-comics.blogspot.com/ <- For economics - not a sequence, per se, but covering a broad range of material in an entertaining and (AFAIK) novel way. http://eco-comics.blogspot.com/2009/06/justice-league-and-comparative.html <- Probably the best post there

Comment author: Clarity 25 August 2015 11:40:54AM *  2 points [-]

I just tried this 'battleground god' thing and it told me:

'It is strange to say that God is a logical impossibility, but you don’t know whether God exists. If God is a logical impossibility, then surely She can’t exist, and so you know that She doesn’t exist.'

I don't get it. Why can't I be unsure about the truth value of something just because it's a logical impossibility? My understanding of logic isn't exhaustive.

Comment author: polymathwannabe 25 August 2015 01:35:25PM 1 point [-]

If you already know that square circles cannot exist, it follows that in fact they do not exist; nothing impossible happens, so a proposition like "I saw a square circle" automatically gets a truth value = 0 without having to bother examining it.

Comment author: Clarity 25 August 2015 02:04:47PM 1 point [-]

thats confirmation bias

Comment author: polymathwannabe 25 August 2015 02:56:56PM 0 points [-]

And how do we compensate for confirmation bias?

"Wait, I must not yet discard the chance I'm wrong, because for all I know, square circles can—"

No, they can't. Ergo, they don't.

Comment author: Clarity 26 August 2015 10:52:44AM 2 points [-]

Sorry I don't follow. Please use baby steps for me.

Comment author: polymathwannabe 26 August 2015 02:24:54PM *  3 points [-]

The purpose of knowing about confirmation bias is to always keep in mind that you tend to overly favor your own preferred hypothesis, so you must adopt a detached perspective and try to consider all alternative explanations.

But in this case we are dealing with the rules of logic. Unless you're a follower of one of the many paraconsistent schools, there are no alternative explanations. The rules just work. It's not confirmation bias to favor an explanation based on the rules of logic.

Denying square circles a priori is not the same as denying black swans a priori: swans are real things in the real universe, and as such can have limitless variations. Swans that fall outside of their former definition force us to update the definition. A black swan is not a logical impossibility. Circles, on the other hand, are abstractions in our heads, and only have one form. Circles that fall outside of their definition are just not circles.

Going back to your original example: IF God is a logical impossibility, no instantiation of a God in the real universe will occur, because, again, nothing impossible happens. You don't need to bother examining the truth value of something that in principle can't occur, for the same reason geometrists don't go on field trips in search for square circles. You can trust logic; it simply won't happen.

Comment author: Clarity 27 August 2015 12:01:11AM -2 points [-]

I disagree.

Denying square circles a priori is not the same as denying black swans a priori: swans are real things in the real universe, and as such can have limitless variations. Swans that fall outside of their former definition force us to update the definition. A black swan is not a logical impossibility. Circles, on the other hand, are abstractions in our heads, and only have one form. Circles that fall outside of their definition are just not circles.

You're implying that square circles are platonic concepts that aren't empirically verifiable. I would argue that they entirely are, just the task would be too difficult to be worth anyone's while. Just because something is in someone else's field of perception, doesn't make it any less real if it's a particular hypothesised shape, or a particular hypothesised colour. I could simply ask someone if they've seen a square circle and if everyone says no, can comfortably believe there aren't any till I perhaps see one, just as if I ask about black swans and if everyone says no, comfortable b eleive they don't exist unless I see one.

nothing impossible happens

This is the assumption made in your last paragraph and I completely disagree. I've frequently found that things I thought were impossible happened. That kind of dogmatic certainty sounds awefully dangerous. While thinking about logic in that kind of self-consistent, but externally inconsistent sense seems to be absurd. One can describe a particular mythology that might make sense in a self-consistent way, but when related to other systems of belief isn't coherent.

Comment author: polymathwannabe 27 August 2015 12:28:38AM 1 point [-]

There is a difference between things that are impossible per se and things we think are impossible. Logical impossibilities are impossible regardless of anyone's opinion. Good luck with that square circle survey.

Comment author: Creutzer 25 August 2015 06:07:26PM 1 point [-]

How can P(x doesn't exist) < P(x is logically impossible)? That's... well, logically impossible.

Comment author: Clarity 26 August 2015 11:05:48AM 0 points [-]

If I've understand correct, you're saying that the probability that x doesn't exist, can't less than the probabiltiy that x is logically impossible.

The reason that it can be true, is because I'm not smart enough to interpret that complicated proposition whether it's in symbolic form or even after I've managed to translate it into words.

Therefore, P(x doesn't exist) may very well be < P(x is logically impossible), I have no idea.

Comment author: David_Bolin 26 August 2015 12:57:35PM 0 points [-]

It is definitely true that this could be someone's subjective probability, if he he doesn't understand the statement.

But if you do understand it, a thing which is logically impossible doesn't exist, so the probability that a thing doesn't exist will be equal to or higher than the probability that it is logically impossible.

Comment author: Clarity 27 August 2015 12:05:31AM *  0 points [-]

I feel like I might understand now. Can I represent your points as follows:

  • all instances of things which are logically impossible also don't exist
  • therefore, there are more things which don't exist than those that are logically impossible

Assuming statement 1 is correct, without accepting a further premise I don't feel compelled to accept the second premise. It sounds like things which are logically impossible may in fact be equivelant to things which don't exist, and vice-versa. And that sounds intuitively compelling. If something was logically possible, it would happen. If it is wasn't possible, it's not going to happen. Or, the agent's modelling of the world is wrong.

Importantly, I don't accept premise 1, as I've indicated in another comment reply (something about how I find I'm wrong about the apparent impossibility of something, or possibility of something.)

Comment author: Creutzer 27 August 2015 05:38:33AM 0 points [-]

Well, the conclusion should read not "more things" but "at least as many". Things might accidentally not exist.

I feel the fact that you reject premise 1 just means that you don't really grasp the concept of impossibility, logical or otherwise... Or you have a different concept of existence.

The reason why I used a semi-formal notation was to suggest that if you formalise it all, you can actually prove "P(x doesn't exist) ≥ P(x is impossible)" as a tautology. (Ignoring the issue that with specifically logical impossibility, you get into a bit of trouble with probability assignments to tautologies.)

Comment author: Clarity 27 August 2015 07:04:14AM 0 points [-]

Seems undecidable, circa Godel bla bla bla.

Comment author: [deleted] 25 August 2015 10:12:13PM 0 points [-]

It makes more sense to think in terms of probabilities here, than "is or isn't". To what probability would you give god being a logical impossibility?

Comment author: Clarity 26 August 2015 11:03:51AM 0 points [-]

Thanks, that's an interesting point, but I don't think it can get a probability of being true or false because that would imply that the underlying concept can somehow be demonstrated true or false.

If it can be demonstrated true or false, then it's logical impossibility would be 0%, because anything that is testable and has yet to be tested has a possibility of being true or false, however small that may be, or else it's self-evident (100%).

Else, it cannot be demonstrated true or false, in which case the logical impossibility is 100%.

Comment author: [deleted] 27 August 2015 01:09:10AM 0 points [-]

But the whole point of the original post was that you had logical uncertainty. That's why in Bayesian reasoning you can't have probabilites of 0 and 1 - to allow for the possibility, however small, of updating.

See also: How to convince me that 2+2 =3

Comment author: Clarity 27 August 2015 06:59:41AM 0 points [-]

Thanks, I don't really understand where I was coming from before. Maybe my new found understanding of the terminology around uncertainty has finally updated my intuitions :)

Comment author: tim 26 August 2015 04:43:33AM 0 points [-]

While I don't agree with the way they phrased their explanation, it's akin to saying "I'm not sure if 2 + 2 = 4 is true, but I am sure it can't equal anything else." Then falling back to "but there could be oddities in the foundation of mathematics that I'm not aware of" when pressed on the inconsistency.

If you claim that your understanding of logic isn't exhaustive, I don't see how you can also claim that X is logically impossible. ("I'm not a car expert but there is no possible way the problem is with the engine")

Comment author: Clarity 26 August 2015 10:58:43AM 0 points [-]

Thanks for that analogy, that gives me a new way to think about it.

I believe I can agree with the 2 + 2 = 4 theorem because I already agree with agreement in the summation of the components represented.

To illustrate:

If I put up 2 figures, then another 2 fingers, I can reliable get consensus from a survey of people and my own intuition/memory that it represents 4 fingers, and correspondingly the number 4.

Meanwhile, I don't have any kind of clear idea of what people are on about when they say god, so doing any logical operation from there is unclear. The reason that understanding the component is important to doing an operation is that it may have an implicit modifier that affects the logical operation in and of itself.

For instance:

2 + (-2) = 4

the (-2), is not the same as 2, it's a different component which may sometimes appear to be a 2, but getting consensus about it from people, or figuring out what to do with your fingers when you read it, might confuse people into giving an answer that is less consistent.

It appears that I'm using a consensus theory of truth. I guess that's neccersary for any kind of discussion with more than one participant anyhow.

Comment author: Tem42 26 August 2015 09:06:01PM 0 points [-]

I'm not certain where the problem lies, but I suspect that you may be misunderstanding the term "logical impossibility". It would not be used to indicate that you have come up with an argument that shows that something is impossible. Instead it would be used to indicate that something is actually impossible in any consistent universe.

To clarify, if I make the argument that 1. Socrates is a man, and 2. all men are mortal, that does not make it logically impossible for Socrates to live forever; it just means that I can show logically that Socrates won't die as long as these statements hold.

Logically impossible things are generally things like a square circle (exactly 4 right angles and exactly 0 angles in the same 2d shape); if they exist, it is because you misunderstand the terms being used in some way; if someone claims that this qualifies as a square circle, they have misunderstood what I am trying to communicate.

Likewise, people may say that an entity cannot be perfectly good and have allowed the holocaust; this might qualify god as a logical impossibility -- if we accept this judgement of morality, if we believe that god is perfectly good, and if we believe that the holocaust happened.

You could perhaps come up with a scenario in which God, being perfectly good, absolutely needed to implant memories of the holocaust into each of our memories.... or you could simply define god as an evil being. so I would say that "logical impossibility" is a bit strong.

Comment author: Clarity 26 August 2015 11:53:10PM *  0 points [-]

To clarify, if I make the argument that 1. Socrates is a man, and 2. all men are mortal, that does not make it logically impossible for Socrates to live forever; it just means that I can show logically that Socrates won't die as long as these statements hold.

Given this premise, I now agree that I misunderstood >'the term "logical impossibility".'

Though, I unfortunately don't understand what it does mean. I'll look it up now and see if that further clarifies.

So from the Wikipedia page, I now understand stand it as something whereby the components of the logical equation in some way denote that the other components are incompatible with it, perhaps they denote some character of the other components at a level of analysis beyond one particular level of characterisation or grouping.

However, if it also comes down to what a particular person can conceive as possibility, doesn't that come down to a particular person's ability to visualise, imagine or recombine concepts into a coherent whole - which almost certainly various between those more cognitively flexible and those who aren't?

In the Wikipedia example, understand why the sky is blue, not just at the physical level but psychological level of description, helps me imagine why someone might claim something apparently absurd like "the sky isn't a sky".

btw,w hen I googled for logical impossibility to get the Wikipage it suggested this stack exchange question

Comment author: Clarity 27 August 2015 12:15:48AM 0 points [-]

Maybe it's because I'm not bayesian enough:

If I accepted that:

Absence of evidence is evidence of absence. P(H | E) > P(H) if and only if P(H | ~E) < P(H). Absence of evidence may be very weak evidence of absence, but it is evidence nonetheless. (However, you may not be entitled to a particular kind of evidence.)

You cannot expect[2] that future evidence will sway you in a particular direction. "For every expectation of evidence, there is an equal and opposite expectation of counterevidence."

Then I may not hold my current attitude. But I don't see reason to believe those premises.

Comment author: Epictetus 27 August 2015 02:04:28AM *  1 point [-]

Why can't I be unsure about the truth value of something just because it's a logical impossibility?

If you're using logic to determine truth values, then a logical impossibility is false. The reason is that if something is logically impossible, then its existence would create a contradiction and so violate the Law of Noncontradiction.

Comment author: Clarity 27 August 2015 07:01:19AM 0 points [-]

Your logic sounds consistent. Thanks, I'm happy to accept the utility of the law of non-contradiction and therefore don't believe in the logical impossibility of god anymore, not the logical impossibility of anything I conceive.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 25 August 2015 01:47:25PM *  2 points [-]

Has anyone got opinions on Clifford Geertz? He's supposedly the most-influential American anthropologist. I began reading his famous book, Interpretation of Cultures, and I'm struck by how illogical it is. He has interesting insights into his own perspective, but he's consistently completely unable to comprehend anyone else's perspective. Odd, for someone who says that's the purpose of his own profession. He fails to draw even caricatures or straw men of behaviorism and cognitivism, his main opponents, and just says they're wrong, then tells entertaining stories until the reader forgets that he never dealt with them.

His big point is that culture shouldn't be seen as a body of knowledge that people in a culture have, but a "web of significance". As far as I can tell this is a distinction without a difference.

He emphasizes the importance of semiotics. This is not a good sign.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 25 August 2015 02:15:34PM 2 points [-]

I've read a little Geertz, and I think part of what he means is that a culture is people doing stuff, not a body of knowledge or a bunch of patterns which can be abstracted away from the people engaging in a culture..

Comment author: PhilGoetz 25 August 2015 02:29:51PM *  3 points [-]

It's the "not" that I have problems with. First, knowledge is abstract, by definition, so to say "not a body of knowledge which can be abstracted..." is the same as to say "not a body of knowledge". Next, the thing that he says culture is, must be completely implicit in the body of knowledge or the bunch of patterns, or else it would have an independent existence from the members of the culture, and be literally the soul of an ethnic group, made out of invisible culture-stuff, much like the consciousness-stuff that John Searle says our minds our made of.

They are different perspectives on the same information. Likewise the behaviorists have a different perspective which also accounts for all of the same information.

He doesn't even notice this. He doesn't seem to make any attempt to understand anyone else's perspectives. He just says they're obviously wrong, using so many words and digressions that the reader assumes, coming to the end of a long paragraph, that there must have been an argument in there somewhere. It's the same style of argument George Steiner uses.

I wonder if he's unable to understand anyone else's perspectives because of his perspective. He says that anthropology is about trying to understand someone else's perspective, but that cannot consist of understanding what they're thinking (what he calls the cognitivist fallacy).

I've read very little of the book so far! It's just... so very unpromising. So much fail in so few pages.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 25 August 2015 10:08:51PM 2 points [-]

else it would have an independent existence from the members of the culture, and be literally the soul of an ethnic group, made out of invisible culture-stuff, much like the consciousness-stuff that John Searle says our minds our made of.

As I understood Geertz, he wasn't talking about invisible culture-stuff, he was talking about tacit culture stuff. The tacit understanding is how people in a culture can make changes which are likely to be satisfactory to other members of the culture, and how members of a culture identify what fits.

If my theory is correct, it gets really complicated as a culture changes over long periods of time and as a result of contact with other cultures.

Comment author: [deleted] 26 August 2015 04:53:12AM 2 points [-]

He doesn't even notice this. He doesn't seem to make any attempt to understand anyone else's perspectives. He just says they're obviously wrong, using so many words and digressions that the reader assumes, coming to the end of a long paragraph, that there must have been an argument in there somewhere. It's the same style of argument George Steiner uses.

This is a common behavior among hedgehogs. I tend to just ignore it and figure out where this person's model works, and where it's overreaching.

Comment author: Tem42 26 August 2015 09:35:47PM 3 points [-]

He's supposedly the most-influential American anthropologist.

Yes, but that's because he was doing stuff in the 50s and 60s, when there were a lot of old theories that were ripe for refining and overturning. He made a name for himself by saying a lot of things that seem obvious to us today -- questioning structuralism and functionalism as dominant paradigms was big news in the day. I would say that his work on theory is not worth the trouble it takes to get through it, but I have a low tolerance for bushwhacking through tangled prose. When you get to applied cases, he does make more sense, and can be engaging. I remember Peddlers and Princes being worth reading, although I think he had a good number of page-long paragraphs there too.

Comment author: escapealias 25 August 2015 06:46:51PM *  20 points [-]

Does anyone know of any posts or resources that are targeted at rationalists that help with extracting yourself and recovering from an abusive relationship?

I've been a longtime student of LessWrong and related communities, studied physics at a top school, great at programming, very introspective etc. etc. All the regular boxes checked. Just a week ago I left a relationship that I realized has become extremely abusive (both emotionally and physically) and I'm having a lot of trouble understanding how I ever got in that situation. Having intensely strong signals from my rational side (RUN RUN) and even stronger signals from my emotional side (GO BACK, YOU HAVE TO HELP HER) is a very uncomfortable position for me to be in and something I've never experienced before.

I had a moment of clarity a week ago after my significant other threatened in a calm, honest tone to give me sleeping pills, cut off certain of my body parts, and then make me watch her put them down the garbage disposal. I opened up to my entire family about everything going on over a frantically intense few hours because I realized soon I would go back to hiding what was going on so that everyone would continue to love her. They've rallied around me and prevented me from going back over the last week and it's been the most difficult week of my life. I knew I'd need to hedge against my future decision making because in that moment of clarity I saw the abuse victim cycle I was in. I've intensely wanted to go back at times over the last week and I know I would have if not for people preventing and constantly reminding me not to.

On some level it's fascinating. I've never been this irrational in my life. I can analyze the situation and output an answer that I know is correct intellectually... but every feeling I have is telling me the opposite, and they're the strongest feelings I've ever had. It's very uncomfortable and leaves me feeling like things would be easier if I just went back.

That was a bit long. I'll stop there and write more if there is any interest.

Comment author: Fluttershy 25 August 2015 08:18:52PM 3 points [-]

There's this, both for dealing with the aftermath of the break-up, as well as the break-up itself.

Comment author: Elo 25 August 2015 09:56:10PM 1 point [-]

beat me to it!

Comment author: escapealias 26 August 2015 11:47:58AM 1 point [-]

Thank you very much this is helpful.

Comment author: Elo 25 August 2015 09:57:30PM *  3 points [-]

Please write more about every part of your experience. As we know from a related field; "people who are sleep deprived don't know how sleep deprived they are". People in an abusive relationship don't know they are in an abusive relationship (until the moment of clarity) any writing about noticing things will help people potentially get away from bad relationships.

Edit: have some karma to help you recover and/also reap successful feeling from your present adventure

Comment author: escapealias 26 August 2015 10:45:11AM 4 points [-]

Thanks for the encouragement, I do intend to write more.

It's only been a week since I removed myself from the situation, and I'm already starting to feel shocked at how much worse it was than I realized at the time. Seeing the faces and hearing the comments of friends and family when I tell them stories makes a world of difference. Not one person has told me I'm making a bad decision.

If you'd asked me 3 years ago if I could ever be in a situation like this I would have assigned it very very low probability. Low probability events happen, but I think what is more likely is that it's a lot easier than I thought to become normalized to an increasingly toxic environment over time.

I think the best advice I could give so far is, if you think you're in an abusive relationship, talk to people about it. On some level I knew something was very wrong, but I began lying to family and friends about what was going on. I did this both to protect her, and to protect our future relationships as a couple. I was always optimistic about getting to a better place, and I didn't want people to hate her once we were there. I told my mother one small story once (far from the worst thing that had happened, and one story among many) and she called me in tears several weeks later saying she was worried I'd hate her for it but she had to tell me that she didn't think the wedding was a good idea (we were engaged).

I'm going to write a lot over the coming weeks and will make a post here if I think I uncover any worthwhile advice.

Comment author: Viliam 25 August 2015 10:21:21PM 10 points [-]

Does anyone know of any posts or resources that are targeted at rationalists that help with extracting yourself and recovering from an abusive relationship?

I hope you don't wait with getting help until you find something targeted specifically for rationalists. Get all the help you can right now. A little bullshit here and there may annoy you, but non-rationalists can also have a lot of domain-specific knowledge.

GO BACK, YOU HAVE TO HELP HER

If there are any methods -- rational or not -- to erase this feeling from your mind, do it a.s.a.p. That is priority #1. Stop your brain from ruining your life.

Congratulations on telling your family. Actually, telling anyone. Saying certain things aloud allows one to think about them more clearly.

Comment author: escapealias 26 August 2015 11:02:41AM 4 points [-]

Thanks for this. I am pursuing help. I have scheduled appointments with two therapists (first office visit today) and I'm looking for a third to try to find one that I can work well with.

Erasing the dangerous thoughts is the hardest part and what I wish I had better methods for. I'm in general the type of person that likes to help others, and feel more empathy for her than any other person. Part of the reason I stayed so long is that I viewed the way she was treating me as an illness and thought to myself, what would I do if she had cancer? I'd stick around and be supportive and try to get her the help she needs. That's what I should do here. That analogy breaks when you start to not feel safe though, something that took me too long to realize.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 26 August 2015 08:56:04PM -1 points [-]

GO BACK, YOU HAVE TO HELP HER

If there are any methods -- rational or not -- to erase this feeling from your mind, do it a.s.a.p. That is priority #1. Stop your brain from ruining your life.

I disagree with the one-sidedness of this advice - esp. without knowing all that much about the situation.

I have also been in a not really alike but also difficult situation and there are many layers. See also this. It might be that he understands only just too well that it was a mutual cycle. It might also be a cry for help on her side. Not that the method is acceptable but a signal it is. And I imagine a smart person can help her. Without going back. Someone else might help. Whatever help is the right kind here.

Comment author: tim 27 August 2015 03:24:37AM *  6 points [-]

This feeds directly into what the OP has just broken free from: a cycle of continuously re-convincing himself that this relationship might not be what it appears on the surface and that he still has a responsibility to the other party.

One-sided advice is exactly what the brain needs to stop it from falling back to the endless well of excuses and rationalizations.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 27 August 2015 05:48:37AM -1 points [-]

Maybe. But if you don't know more than I do from what what posted here your can't say with the strength you did in your post (though agree that by now some more details have become apparent).

I have been in a probably much less but still abusive relationship and if your are smart, reflective and it's not too abusive (though I guess that the level of abuse changes over time) you can break up without loosing everything of the relationship. After all both sides have a part in it and by denying worth one looses or misrepresents also ones own part in it. My view of her and us has changed by our breakup but I salvaged positive emotion for her, esp. the things we did right and what was good about her - without feeling compelled to help her overly. A point he is over too apparently now (yes, it does take time).

One-sided advice is exactly what the brain needs to stop it from falling back to the endless well of excuses and rationalizations.

Could you back that up with non-anecdotal evidence please.

Comment author: Vladimir_Golovin 26 August 2015 03:15:08PM 1 point [-]

Buy and read this book right now: "No More Mr. Nice Guy" by Robert Glover

(I can't tell from your post whether you are male or female, but it doesn't matter. The book is equally good for either.)

In essence, this book may help you learn how to stop being a victim, how to set your own limits, and how to get your own needs met. It also may inoculate you against getting into future relationships like this.

Comment author: OrphanWilde 26 August 2015 06:55:13PM 6 points [-]

Speaking as somebody who could easily be on the other side of that equation, except for a very rigorous moral system, including a rule to stay the hell away from people who scream "Victim!" into my brain, I can tell you exactly how you got into that situation.

She became whatever you needed her to be, in order for you to be the target she wanted you to be. (I can manipulate anybody into doing anything. I just have to become the person they would do that thing for - and my self is flexible in ways most people couldn't imagine.)

In particular, she became somebody who needed help, because you would try to help her.

It's important to realize - she doesn't need help. She never needed help. The person you want to help doesn't exist, and never did. That person was a mask that the person who threatened you wore to make you vulnerable.

Allow yourself to mourn the person you thought she was. But do not imagine that that person was ever her.

Comment author: WalterL 26 August 2015 09:15:54PM 0 points [-]

If someone threatens you and/or abuses you, call the police. That stuff is illegal. Do so as soon as you safely can.

Comment author: Clarity 27 August 2015 07:12:21AM 1 point [-]

As someone who has been through a lot of abuse, beware. Your future self, not your current self, feels the fallout from the abuse more so than your current self. You have adapted to your abusive situation, when it goes away, you will be maladapted. Get out. Just take it on blind faith that you should get out if you have to. You don't want to end up like me. In my case I was indeed subjected to violence like what might happen to you. To this day, I regret not retaliating, killing my abuser or torturing them back to save myself from even a portion of it. And I'm well aware that's very much not normal. Now, even though I have the opportunity, I don't want to and won't, but if I could go back in time, well...the point is that you should get out, and that's not at all going to be the hard point from there.

Comment author: fubarobfusco 26 August 2015 04:48:29AM *  4 points [-]

I find myself occasionally in conversations that aim at choosing one of two (or more) courses of action. Here are some patterns that arise that frustrate me:

A: We'll get to City in an hour. When we're there, do you want to do X? Or maybe Y?
B: I haven't thought about it yet, I've been dodging sheep and potholes. What do you want to do?
A: Whatever you're comfortable doing.
B: Umm ... Which is easier to get to?
A: I don't know. Or, we could do C, D, or E?
B: Now I'm getting choice paralysis.
A: Well, I wanted to see if you were really enthusiastic for any of them when I mentioned them. Like "Ooh, C, we have to do C, it's awesome."
B: Are you enthusiastic for any of them? Or are there some that we can rule out because they'd be hard on you?
A: Well, I'm not very interested in X but I'd do it if you wanted to.
B: Wow, X was like the first option you proposed. I would have guessed that was the one you most favored.
A: No, that was the one I thought you would most want to do. It sounds okay but not great to me.

(It may be relevant that A has a mild physical disability and self-describes as an introvert, while B self-describes as an extrovert diagnosed with depression and anxiety. Both are relatively neurotypical for around here.)

A: Where should we eat dinner tonight? Can you look on the search results for "City restaurants"?
B: Well, there's Anna's Afghan, Caonima Chinese, Dack's Deli, and Ed's Ethiopian, plus a bunch of taquerias and burger joints.
A: That's too many options. Which are any good?
B: I already filtered out the ones that really didn't sound like we would like them. Like Pat's Pork-Fat BBQ Smokestack.
A: Ew, yeah, good idea, but it's still too many. We should narrow it down.
B: Okay, how about Dack's Deli? I could go for a turkey avocado sandwich.
A: How about Bob's or ... hey, there's a second page of search results. Flora's Flounder Fish, Greg's Garlic Gustables, ...
B: Wait, I thought you said we needed to narrow down the list we already had?
A: Well yes, we do.
B: So, I nominated Dack's Deli and you didn't respond, and extended the list of candidates instead. Should I take that as meaning that you're rejecting Dack's Deli outright and narrow the list down?
A: No, I just want more information. Any of these could turn out to suck.
B: Well, sure, but we don't need to find the very best budget restaurant in City. We just need to find one that is nice enough that we like it,
A: Caonima Chinese has an alpaca on their logo, but I'm not sure I want to go to a restaurant that tells me to fuck my mom.
B: Yeah, that is a little creepy. Mumble mumble hipsters mumble.
A: So you really want to go to Dack's Deli?
B: Not particularly but since all we know about any of these is the listings, we might as well choose kind of arbitrarily.
A: FIne, let's do that.

(The deli turned out to be closed, but the fish & chip shop next door was fine.)

It feels like we're running two different negotiation scripts. Mine (B) works by collecting a pool of candidate results (by brainstorming, or using a search engine, then filtering out things that we're definitely not up for doing, then doing a tiny bit of stack ranking and presenting the list. A's script seems to start out by proposing the option that A thinks I will like most, even if A doesn't want that option very much, then falling back to "rattle off some results and see if any elicit +++ enthusiasm.

Assume that the conversational partners have heard of NVC, value of information, basic business negotiation; and also assume that one another are acting in good faith. The limiting factor is not "can we come to equitable terms?" or "is this going to lead to a big fight?" ... it is more "can we more rapidly converge on a common-knowledge prediction of an enjoyable dinner, without spending huge mental effort on it up front?"

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 26 August 2015 08:47:26AM 3 points [-]

It sounds to me as though the problem is that neither of you are very enthusiastic about any of the choices. One possibility is to identify a list of what's tolerable and then use a random method for choosing.

Another is to talk with each other about what each of you really like at a time when you aren't distracted and tired.

It's conceivable that one or both of you aren't good at remembering what you really like, in which case keeping records would help.

Comment author: Dagon 26 August 2015 03:24:19PM 5 points [-]

This happens to my spouse and me very often. We've gotten pretty good at noticing after the second "I dunno, what do you want to do" round that we need to switch from ask mode to tell mode. Don't give options, just propose something, and say "any objection must take the form of a counterproposal" (yes, we say literally this sentence to each other a few times a week).

Especially when one partner is more tired than the other, we can instead just have the more engaged partner pick something and the tired one get one or two vetos before being forced to step up and actually accept something. This isn't always comfortable, especially when it's unclear that there exists a good solution.

Comment author: Houshalter 26 August 2015 06:31:34AM *  1 point [-]

I'm very confused about something related to the Halting Problem. I discussed this on the IRC with some people, but I couldn't get across what I meant very well. So I wrote up something a bit longer and a bit more formal.

The gist of it is, the halting problem lets us prove that, for a specific counter example, there can not exist any proof that it halts or not. A proof that it does or does not halt, causes a paradox.

But if it's true that there doesn't exist a proof that it halts, then it will run forever searching for one. Therefore I've proved that the program will not halt. Therefore a proof that it doesn't halt does exist (this one), and it will eventually find it. Creating a paradox.

Just calling the problem undecidable doesn't actually solve anything. If you can prove it's undecidable, it creates the same paradox. If no Turing machine can know whether or not a program halts, and we are also Turing machines, then we can't know either.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 26 August 2015 09:40:36AM 3 points [-]

Therefore a proof that it doesn't halt does exist (this one), and it will eventually find it.

Gödel's incompleteness bites here. What theory is your halt-testing machine H searching for a proof within? H can only find termination proofs that are derivable from the axioms of that theory. What theory is your proof that H(FL,FL) does not terminate expressed in? I believe it will necessarily not be the same one.

Comment author: David_Bolin 26 August 2015 01:25:32PM *  0 points [-]

There is no program such that no Turing machine can determine whether it halts or not. But no Turing machine can take every program and determine whether or not each of them halts.

It isn't actually clear to me that you a Turing machine in the relevant sense, since there is no context where you would run forever without halting, and there are contexts where you will output inconsistent results.

But even if you are, it simply means that there is something undecidable to you -- the examples you find will be about other Turing machines, not yourself. There is nothing impossible about that, because you don't and can't understand your own source code sufficiently well.

Comment author: Houshalter 27 August 2015 01:44:43AM 0 points [-]

The program I specified is impossible to prove will halt. It doesn't matter what Turing machine, or human, is searching for the proof. It can never be found. It can't exist.

The paradox is that I can prove that. Which means I can prove the program searching for proofs will never halt. Which I just proved is impossible.

Comment author: David_Bolin 26 August 2015 01:29:01PM 1 point [-]

Also, there is definitely some objective fact where you cannot get the right answer:

"After thinking about it, you will decide that this statement is false, and you will not change your mind."

If you conclude that this is false, then the statement will be true. No paradox, but you are wrong.

If you conclude that this is true, then the statement will be false. No paradox, but you are wrong.

If you make no conclusion, or continuously change your mind, then the statement will be false. No paradox, but the statement is undecidable to you.

Comment author: tut 26 August 2015 02:05:56PM 2 points [-]

It does not give a counterexample. It specifies a way that you could find a counterexample if there was a halting oracle. But if there was a halting oracle there wouldn't be any counterexample. So what is found is a contradiction.

Comment author: Houshalter 27 August 2015 02:20:04AM *  1 point [-]

The standard halting problem proof doesn't specify what the halting oracle is. It just shows how to construct a counter example for any halting oracle. I actually specified a halting oracle; a program which searches through all possible proofs until it finds a proof that it halts or not.

Then running it on the counterexample causes it to run forever. Therefore I've proved that it will run forever. The program will eventually find that proof, return false, and halt.

Comment author: Dagon 26 August 2015 03:15:17PM 1 point [-]

No, it's the halting problem all the way down.

But if it's true that there doesn't exist a proof that it halts, then it will run forever searching for one.

Not remotely! There's no proof that it halts, and there's no proof that it doesn't halt. It will run until it halts or the universe ends - there is no forever. The key is that there can be programs for which nobody can tell which one they are without actually trying them until they halt or the universe ends.

Comment author: Houshalter 27 August 2015 02:13:15AM 0 points [-]

"It's the halting problem all the way down", doesn't resolve the paradox, but does express the issue nicely.

Do you not agree with the sentence you quoted? That if a proof of haltiness doesn't exist, it will search forever for one? And not halt? Because that trivially follows from the definition of the program. It searches proofs forever, until it finds one.

Comment author: Dagon 27 August 2015 03:16:49AM 2 points [-]

Nope, it also can't be proven that it'll search forever: it might halt a few billion years (or a few hundred ms) in. There's no period of time of searching after which you can say "it'll continue to run forever",as it might halt while you're saying it, which is embarrassing.

Comment author: Epictetus 27 August 2015 01:33:05AM 0 points [-]

From the link:

That means that we can’t actually prove that a proof doesn’t exist, or it creates a paradox. But we did prove it! And the reasoning is sound! Either H returns true, or false, or loops forever. The first two options can’t be true, on pain of paradox. Leaving only the last possibility. But if we can prove that, so can H. And that itself creates a paradox.

H proves that it can't decide the question one way or the other. The assumption that H can only return TRUE or FALSE is flawed: if a proof exists that something is undecidable, then H would need to be able to return "undecidable".

This example seems to verify the halting problem: you came up with an algorithm that tries to decide whether a program halts, and then came up with an input for which the algorithm can't decide one way or another.

Comment author: Houshalter 27 August 2015 02:04:40AM *  0 points [-]

H proves that it can't decide the question one way or the other.

H is literally defined as either returning true or false. Or it can run forever, if it can't find a proof. It's possible to create another program which does return "UNDECIDABLE" sometimes. But that is not H.

The point is that the behavior of H is paradoxical. We can prove that it can't return true or false without contradiction. But if that's provable, that also creates a contradiction, since H can prove it to.

Not only can H not decide, but we can't decide whether or not H will decide. Because we aren't outside the system, and the same logic applies to us.

Comment author: Epictetus 27 August 2015 02:19:17AM *  0 points [-]

I did overlook the definition of H. Apologies.

The point is that the behavior of H is paradoxical. We can prove that it can't return true or false without contradiction. But if that's provable, that also creates a contradiction, since H can prove it to.

More precisely, H will encounter a proof that the question is undecidable. It then runs into the following two if statements:

if check_if_proof_proves_x_halts(proof, x, i)

if check_if_proof_proves_x_doesnt_halt(proof, x, i)

Both return "false", so H moves into the next iteration of the while loop. H will generate undecidability proofs, but as implemented it will merely discard them and continue searching. Since such proofs do not cause H to halt, and since there are no proofs that the program halts or does not, then H will run forever.

Comment author: polymathwannabe 26 August 2015 07:57:18PM 4 points [-]
Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 26 August 2015 09:05:39PM 4 points [-]
Comment author: Ilverin 26 August 2015 10:36:05PM 0 points [-]

Efficient charity: you don't need to be an altruist to benefit from contributing to charity

Effective altruism rests on two philosophical ideas: altruism and utilitarianism.

In my opinion, even if you're not an altruist, you might still want to use statistics to learn about charity.

Some people believe that they have an ethical obligation to cause a net 0 suffering. Others might believe they have an ethical obligation to cause only an average amount of suffering. In these causes, in order to reduce suffering to an acceptable level, efficient charity might be for you.

It's possible that in your life you will not come across enough ponds with drowning people that only you can save and you will have to pursue other means of reducing suffering. An alternate method is charity, and statistics can identify which charities and how much to donate.

In order to save money to satisfy your own preferences, you might want to donate as little as possible. You might also calculate that a different time might be best to donate (like after you die). But if you come to either of these conclusions, you're still using the idea of efficient charity.

Comment author: Clarity 27 August 2015 03:17:17AM 0 points [-]

which countries and places in the world in general is it unsafe to get sick in?

I'm concerned about the health systems in other countries but like the idea of traveling.

How are transfers between health systems arranged and when is it a good idea?

Comment author: Clarity 27 August 2015 07:08:05AM 0 points [-]

Is there any explanation, term, or research into the phenomenon of shifting mental health diagnoses? Like getting diagnosis retracted, remissions, then appearance of symptoms suggesting something else, and so forthe? Perhaps there is an explanation for how or why mental health conditions might transform into one another?