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Vaniver comments on Open Thread August 31 - September 6 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Isolated demands for rigor -- what do you think Adams is doing? (I think he's generating traffic.)
But sure, I agree, that's more of a reasonable prior than an argument. There's more info on the table now.
What Adams has said he's doing is simulating the future along the mainline prediction--i.e. nothing too weird happens--and under his model, Trump is guaranteed to win. Then he says "well, maybe something weird will happen" and drops that confidence by 2%, instead of a more reasonable 30% (or 50%).