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Douglas_Knight comments on Actually existing prediction markets? - Less Wrong Discussion

8 Post author: Douglas_Knight 02 September 2015 10:24PM

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Comment author: Douglas_Knight 03 September 2015 03:07:31PM 0 points [-]

The web page is here. In previous years they recruited new participants about this time of year, but they don't seem to be doing so this year. They are transitioning off of IARPA funding and much of the page is broken.

This was one of many competitors in the IARPA competition. I didn't include them because their predictions were not public. They couldn't be public, because the whole point was to compare their results. Except Scicast, because it wasn't predicting the same things. Even if you joined GJP, you probably only got aggregated predictions across your team, and maybe not even that.