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Lumifer comments on Open thread 7th september - 13th september - Less Wrong Discussion
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So far as I know, it started as a vicious government reaction, but now (as you say) there's a war which would continue even in the absence of the Syrian government.
If the Syrian government had reacted better to the drought, would Syria have been as vulnerable to war?
Yes. Syria is ruled by the al-Assad clan and they are Alawites which many do no consider to be true Muslims. There has been major sectarian strife in Syria since at least the early 1980s and the resurgence of militant Islam spelled trouble for the Syrian regime, drought or no drought.