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tut comments on Open thread 7th september - 13th september - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: Elo 06 September 2015 10:27PM

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Comment author: gjm 10 September 2015 04:46:37PM -1 points [-]

Suppose the situation is as follows.

  • You can stay. You're then in constant danger, with let's say p=0.1 of each person getting killed.
  • The whole family can leave. The process is risky; let's say p=0.01 of each person getting killed. Then with p=0.5 you find somewhere to stay and are then safe, but if not you have to return (so another p=0.01 of getting killed) and then your situation is as before with p=0.1 of getting killed.
  • One person can leave. Still risky. It might be less risky for a single young fit person who can run and hide and fight better, but let's ignore that. So that one person gets p=0.01 of getting killed; then with p=0.5 they have to come back (another p=0.01 of death) but now the rest of the family can stay put, and otherwise the family goes out to join them (p=0.01 of death again, but now knowing that they will be safe once they're out).

This doesn't seem contrived to me. And in that situation, it seems very reasonable to choose the "send one person first" option. (Even more so if we don't ignore the possibility that one person can get out and investigate other countries more safely than a whole family.)

Comment author: tut 10 September 2015 06:38:17PM *  3 points [-]

That is ridiculously contrived, and would probably have handed the debate to VofR if you and Imm were the only people arguing against him.

However RichardKennaway has already given the real answer: They are opportunity seekers in the last leg of their journey, but their starting point in that search is various refugee camps in Turkey and the middle east, to which they fled from war and other real dangers. If you look at the demographics in the refugee camps they look much more like whole families fleeing together.

Additionally, if one person in a family gets papers to stay legally in any EU country, the rest of the family gets to come here on regular flights with proper visas, which is both safer and cheaper then the boats that the asylum seekers arrive on.

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