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turchin comments on Doomsday Argument Map - Less Wrong Discussion
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Look, some one may say: "A fair coin could fail heads 20 times in row and you will win million dollar". And it is true. But this does not disprove more general statement that: "playing coin for money has zero expected money win".
The same situation is this Caves and DA.
We could imagine situation there DA is wrong, but its is true in most situations (where it is applyable)
See also my large comment about Caves to gjm.