= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
turchin comments on Doomsday Argument Map - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (32)
Why is that case "non random"? A randomly selected person could well turn out to be a 1 month old child. If you know in advance that this is not typical, then you already know something about median life expectancy, and that is what you are using to make your estimate, not the age of the selected person.
Do you have a criticism of Caves' detailed mathematical analysis? It seems definitive to me.
And: to the person who keeps downvoting me. Are you treating my "arguments as soldiers", or do you have a rational argument of your own to offer?
Look, some one may say: "A fair coin could fail heads 20 times in row and you will win million dollar". And it is true. But this does not disprove more general statement that: "playing coin for money has zero expected money win".
The same situation is this Caves and DA.
We could imagine situation there DA is wrong, but its is true in most situations (where it is applyable)
See also my large comment about Caves to gjm.