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IlyaShpitser comments on Probabilities Small Enough To Ignore: An attack on Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong Discussion
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How do you know you don't exist in the matrix? And that the true universe above ours doesn't have infinite computing power (or huge but bounded, if you don't believe in infinity.) How do you know the true laws of physics in our own universe don't allow such possibilities?
You can say these things are unlikely. That's literally specified in the problem. That doesn't resolve the paradox at all though.
I don't know, but my heuristic says to ignore stories that violate sensible physics I know about.
That's fine. You can just follow your intuition, and that usually won't lead you too wrong. Usually. However the issue here is programming an AI which doesn't share our intuitions. We need to actually formalize our intuitions to get it to behave as we would.
What criterion do you use to rule out solutions?