I think you were basically doing okay, it's just that as soon as you formulated your initial hypothesis you should have actively sought out a way to disprove it. How hard can I lean on my fence? Is scratching lazily sufficient to remove paint on the siding? Do I dare to wash the floor under the bookshelf?... After all, if you suddenly received lots of evidence to the contrary, you would a) update fast, and b) earn husband points.

In essence, you should always ask yourself, is this still the relevant question?