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Lumifer comments on Open thread, Oct. 12 - Oct. 18, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: MrMind 12 October 2015 06:57AM

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Comment author: Fluttershy 13 October 2015 04:08:18AM 2 points [-]

I'm rather frustrated that there's not a guide to being generally healthier that uses probabilities and payoffs and such to convince readers that they should bother to do any specific activity, or adopt any specific intervention to make themselves healthier. Health information is so disorganized-- which is fine for the cutting edge stuff, but for stuff that many people get that we've known how to treat for a while, such as cavities, acid reflux, and so on, I feel like it should be way the buck easier to find detailed info on how much certain activities increase or decrease your risk of getting that problem by, and what the base rate is.

For example, a week ago, I would have guessed that maybe 5% of adults in the US had ever had a cavity, but a quick Google search suggests that the actual number is closer to 95%. I've gone from rarely flossing to flossing daily since finding this out!

Comment author: Lumifer 13 October 2015 07:27:45PM *  3 points [-]

what the base rate is

There is a not insurmountable but a pretty large problem here. Rates for which groups? There are a LOT of relevant subgroups (sex, age, ethnicity, social group, geographic group, current medical conditions, previous medical conditions, diet, etc.).

If you just want an overall picture, CDC publishes mortality and morbidity tables, I believe, which should supply you with some sort of base rates.

Medical diagnostic expert systems exist and do reasonably well, but they are not trivial.

On a practical note, the doctors' guild is likely to take a luddite position towards this X-/