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Tem42 comments on Stupid questions thread, October 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Also not an economist.
The simple model would be: everyone needs a certain minimum amount of food. If everyone is getting $300 a month and spending $200 a month on food, and if the price of food suddenly jumps to $300 a month, people will start to spend $300 a month on food. So we'd expect the price of food to increase, so retailers can extract everything they can from customers.
I'm not sure that prices rise because of inflation, so much as inflation being the name we give to the phenomenon of rising prices. I'd be moderately surprised if economists could accurately (and precisely) predict the effects of UBI on inflation.
Remember that retailers are in competition. If Food Lion raises it's prices and Aldi does not, then Aldi magically gets more customers. Neither grocery store is motivated to become the High Cost Loser.
I addressed that below:
Also consider that retailers do in fact have different prices. Instead of Sainburys raising prices, we might find Sainsburys starting to get edged out by Waitrose. (This feels sketchy to me, especially since it's least likely to happen in poor areas, and I'm not about to argue for it specifically. But I do want to suggest that prices can rise from factors other than "retailers decide to raise prices".)