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CellBioGuy comments on A Map of Currently Available Life Extension Methods - Less Wrong Discussion

11 Post author: turchin 17 October 2015 12:10AM

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Comment author: JoshuaZ 17 October 2015 06:28:19PM *  4 points [-]

Not far indeed: global life expectancy at birth was 26 years in the Bronze Age, and in 2010 was 67.2. Five years ago our life expectancy at birth was more than double what it had been.

This is a little misleading because low life expectancy at birth was to a large extent a function of very high infant mortality. It is true that even if one takes into account infant mortality (for example by looking at life expectancy at three years of age) that life expectancy has gone up. However, this is primarily average life expectancy. Maximum life expectancy has barely budged. This is sometimes referred to as rectangularization of mortality curves.

I do think it is likely that we are going to see substantial improvements in maximum life expectancy in the next few years, but the change in life expectancy up to this time isn't really indicative of it.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 17 October 2015 08:33:16PM *  2 points [-]

Indeed, if you reached age 10 in the Roman empire you'd probably reach age 50 and if you reached age 20 your expectancy is near 60.

Infectious disease has always been awful.

And again, indeed the age of the OLDEST people has barely budged since ancient Greece.