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AABoyles comments on [Link] Study: no big filter, we're just too early - Less Wrong Discussion
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The Great Filter isn't an explanation of why life on Earth is unique; rather, it's an explanation of why we have no evidence of civilizations that have developed beyond Kardashev I. So, rather than focusing on the probability that some life has evolved somewhere else, consider the reason that we apparently don't have intelligent life everywhere. THAT's the Great Filter.
"They do exist, but we see no evidence" is an alternative theory to the Great Filter, and I believe what Jacob Cannell is using wrt the cold dark model.