Citation needed.
That was an overconfident statement, but for more on how Calibration is useful in places other than Forecasting, check out "How to Measure Anything" as mentioned in the last comment.
But let's see, assume we have successfully run the calibration exercises with our group of geneticists. What do you expect them to change in their studies of which genes do what? We can get even more specific, let's say we're talking about one of the twin studies where the author tracked a set of twins, tested them on some phenotype feature X, and is reporting the results that the twins correlate Y% while otherwise similar general population is correlated Z%. What results would better calibration affect?
Once calibrated, they can make estimates on how sure they are of certain hypotheses, and of how likely treatments based on those hypotheses would lead to lives saved. This in turn can allow them to quantify what experiment to run next using value of information calculations.
Furthermore, by taking a survey of many of these calibrated genetic experts then extremizing their results, you can get an idea of how likely certain hypotheses are to turn out being correct.
Once calibrated, they can make estimates on how sure they are of certain hypotheses
I don't know if you read scientific papers, but they don't "make estimates on how sure they are of certain hypotheses". They present the data and talk about the conclusions and implications that follow from the data presented. The potential hypotheses are evaluated on the basis of data, not on the basis of how well-calibrated does a particular researcher feel.
Calibration is good for guesstimates, it's not particularly valuable for actual research.
...how likely tr
Cross-posted from my blog here.
One of the greatest successes of mankind over the last few centuries has been the enormous amount of wealth that has been created. Once upon a time virtually everyone lived in grinding poverty; now, thanks to the forces of science, capitalism and total factor productivity, we produce enough to support a much larger population at a much higher standard of living.
EAs being a highly intellectual lot, our preferred form of ritual celebration is charts. The ordained chart for celebrating this triumph of our people is the Declining Share of People Living in Extreme Poverty Chart.
(Source)
However, as a heretic, I think this chart is a mistake. What is so great about reducing the share? We could achieve that by killing all the poor people, but that would not be a good thing! Life is good, and poverty is not death; it is simply better for it to be rich.
As such, I think this is a much better chart. Here we show the world population. Those in extreme poverty are in purple – not red, for their existence is not bad. Those who the wheels of progress have lifted into wealth unbeknownst to our ancestors, on the other hand, are depicted in blue, rising triumphantly.
Long may their rise continue.