Science moves forward through something called scientific consensus.
No. This is absolutely false. Science moves forward through being able to figure out better and better how reality works. Consensus is really irrelevant to the process. The ultimate arbiter is reality regardless of what a collection of people with advanced degrees can agree on.
The decision model uses a forecast "How many lives can be saved", but it also uses calibration of known data "Based on the data you have, how sure are you that this particular fact is true".
That has nothing to do with calibration. "How many lives can be saved" is properly called a point forecast which provides an estimate of the center of the distribution. These are very popular but also limited because a much more useful forecast would come with an expected error and, ideally, would specify the shape of the distribution as well.
"Based on the data you have, how sure are you that this particular fact is true" is properly a question about the standard error of the estimate and it has nothing to do with subjective beliefs (well-calibrated or not) of the author.
I only care about someone's calibration if I'm asking him to guess. If the answer is "based on the data", it is based on the data and calibration is irrelevant.
No. This is absolutely false. Science moves forward through being able to figure out better and better how reality works.
While this completely true, and consensus only plays a minor role in science, it's not true that consensus is irrelevant. Given no other information about a certain hypothesis other than that the majority of scientists believe it to be true, the rational course of action would be to adjust belief in the hypothesis upward. Of course, evidence contradicting the hypothesis would nullify this consensus effect. Even a small amount of evidence trumps a large consensus.
Cross-posted from my blog here.
One of the greatest successes of mankind over the last few centuries has been the enormous amount of wealth that has been created. Once upon a time virtually everyone lived in grinding poverty; now, thanks to the forces of science, capitalism and total factor productivity, we produce enough to support a much larger population at a much higher standard of living.
EAs being a highly intellectual lot, our preferred form of ritual celebration is charts. The ordained chart for celebrating this triumph of our people is the Declining Share of People Living in Extreme Poverty Chart.
(Source)
However, as a heretic, I think this chart is a mistake. What is so great about reducing the share? We could achieve that by killing all the poor people, but that would not be a good thing! Life is good, and poverty is not death; it is simply better for it to be rich.
As such, I think this is a much better chart. Here we show the world population. Those in extreme poverty are in purple – not red, for their existence is not bad. Those who the wheels of progress have lifted into wealth unbeknownst to our ancestors, on the other hand, are depicted in blue, rising triumphantly.
Long may their rise continue.