That seems very different from my perception of science
Aren't both these views of science oversimplifications? I mean, in practice most of the people making use of the work scientists have done aren't really testing the scientists' work for themselves (they're kinda doing it implicitly by making use of that work, but the whole point is that they are confident it's not going to fail).
Reality certainly is the ultimate arbiter, but regrettably we don't get to ask Reality directly whether our theories are correct; all we can do is test them somewhat (in some cases it's not even clear how to begin doing that; I'm looking at you, string theory) and that testing is done by fallible people using fallible equipment, and in many cases it's very difficult to do in a way that actually lets you separate the signal from the noise, and most of us aren't well placed to evaluate how fallibly it's been done in any given case, and in practice usually we have to fall back on something like "scientific consensus" after all.
I think you and MattG are at cross purposes about the role he sees for calibration in science. The process by which actual primary scientific work becomes useful to people who aren't specialists in the field goes something like this:
Calibration (in the sense we're talking about here) isn't of much relevance to Alice when she's doing the primary research. She will report that the Daily Mail is positively associated with brain cancer in rats (RR=1.3, n=50, CI=[1.1,1.5], p=0.01, etc., etc., etc.) and that's more or less it. (I take it that's the point you've been making.)
But Bob's opinion about the carcenogenicity of the Daily Mail (having read Alice's papers) is an altogether slipperier thing; and the opinion to which he and Beth and the others converge is slipperier still. It'll depend on their assessment of how likely it is that Alice made a mistake, how likely it is that Aloysius's results are fraudulent given that he took a large grant from the DMG Media Propaganda Fund, etc.; and on how strongly Bob is influenced when he hears Bill say "... and of course we all know what a shoddy operation Alex's lab is."
It is in these later stages that better calibration could be valuable, and that I think Matt would like to see more explicit reference to it. He would like Bob and Bill and Beth and the rest to be explicit about what they think and why and how confidently, and he would like the consensus-generating process to involve weighing people's opinions more or less heavily when they are known to be better or worse at the sort of subjective judgement required to decide how completely to mistrust Aloysius because of his funding.
I'm not terribly convinced that that would actually help much, for what it's worth. But I don't think what Matt's saying is invalidated by pointing out that Alice's publications don't talk about (this kind of) calibration.
I mean, in practice most of the people making use of the work scientists have done aren't really testing the scientists' work for themselves (they're kinda doing it implicitly by making use of that work, but the whole point is that they are confident it's not going to fail).
First, I think the "implicitly" part is very important. That glowing gizmo with melted-sand innards in front of me works. By working it verifies, very directly, a whole lot of science.
And "working in practice" is what leads to confidence, not vice versa. When a sa...
Cross-posted from my blog here.
One of the greatest successes of mankind over the last few centuries has been the enormous amount of wealth that has been created. Once upon a time virtually everyone lived in grinding poverty; now, thanks to the forces of science, capitalism and total factor productivity, we produce enough to support a much larger population at a much higher standard of living.
EAs being a highly intellectual lot, our preferred form of ritual celebration is charts. The ordained chart for celebrating this triumph of our people is the Declining Share of People Living in Extreme Poverty Chart.
(Source)
However, as a heretic, I think this chart is a mistake. What is so great about reducing the share? We could achieve that by killing all the poor people, but that would not be a good thing! Life is good, and poverty is not death; it is simply better for it to be rich.
As such, I think this is a much better chart. Here we show the world population. Those in extreme poverty are in purple – not red, for their existence is not bad. Those who the wheels of progress have lifted into wealth unbeknownst to our ancestors, on the other hand, are depicted in blue, rising triumphantly.
Long may their rise continue.