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turchin comments on What we could learn from the frequency of near-misses in the field of global risks (Happy Bassett-Bordne day!) - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (9)
I would expect a very high proportion of near-misses to stay secret. You don't make yourself look good by telling the world you nearly accidentally triggered an x-risk event. There's a huge incentive to cover it up.
That is true. I think we know only 1 from 10 near-misses in nuclear weapons field. Underreporting of near misses is well known problem in other domains