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JoshuaZ comments on Using the Copernican mediocrity principle to estimate the timing of AI arrival - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: turchin 04 November 2015 11:42AM

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Tags: time argument doomsday ai

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Comment author: JoshuaZ 06 November 2015 07:35:38PM 0 points [-]

The most interesting unknown in the future is the time of creation of Strong AI. Our priors are insufficient to predict it because it is such a unique task.

I'm not sure this follows. The primary problems with predicting the rise of Strong AI apply to most other artificial existential risks also.

Comment author: turchin 06 November 2015 09:30:03PM 1 point [-]

Many of them may be predicted using the same logic. For example, we may try to estimate next time nuclear weapons will be used in war, based on a fact that they were used once in 1945. It results in 75 per cent probability for next 105 years. see also a comment below.

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