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turchin comments on Using the Copernican mediocrity principle to estimate the timing of AI arrival - Less Wrong Discussion
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I think it should work if we see clear effort to create something physically possible. In case of Emdrive it may be proved that it is impossible. (But NASA just claimed that its new version of Emdrive seems to work :) In case of seasteding I think it is quite possible and most likely will be created during 21 century.
We could also use this logic to estimate next time nuclear weapons will be used in war, based on 1945 date. It gives 75 per cent for the next 105 years.
But if we use 75 per cent interval, it also means that 1 of 4 predictions will be false. So Lesswrong may survive )))