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Good_Burning_Plastic comments on Using the Copernican mediocrity principle to estimate the timing of AI arrival - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'd give Less Wrong and e-mail substantially more than 25% chance of surviving to 2020 and 2135 respectively in some form, and the US a bit less than 25% chance of surviving to 2732. (But still within the same ballpark -- not bad for such a crude heuristic.)