You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

Good_Burning_Plastic comments on Using the Copernican mediocrity principle to estimate the timing of AI arrival - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: turchin 04 November 2015 11:42AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (17)
Tags: time argument doomsday ai

Comments (17)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: freyley 06 November 2015 05:01:14PM 3 points [-]

75% probability that the following things will be gone by: LessWrong: 2020 Email: 2135 The web: 2095 Y Combinator: 2045 Google: 2069 Microsoft: 2135 USA: 2732 Britain: 4862

These don't seem unreasonable.

I'm not sure that this method works with something that doesn't exist coming into existence. Would we say that we expect a 75% chance that someone will solve the problems of the EmDrive by 2057? That we'll have seasteading by 2117?

Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 07 November 2015 01:00:34PM *  0 points [-]

These don't seem unreasonable.

I'd give Less Wrong and e-mail substantially more than 25% chance of surviving to 2020 and 2135 respectively in some form, and the US a bit less than 25% chance of surviving to 2732. (But still within the same ballpark -- not bad for such a crude heuristic.)

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit