You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

V_V comments on Using the Copernican mediocrity principle to estimate the timing of AI arrival - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: turchin 04 November 2015 11:42AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (17)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: V_V 07 November 2015 02:49:29PM *  3 points [-]

I can't see any plausible reason to predict that Microsoft will last longer than Google or that Britain will last longer than the USA.

In general, I tend to assume that recent history is more relevant to future prediction than older history, a sort of generalized informal Markov assumption if you wish, therefore trying to predict how long things will last based only on their age is likely to yield incorrect results.