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V_V comments on Using the Copernican mediocrity principle to estimate the timing of AI arrival - Less Wrong Discussion
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75% probability that the following things will be gone by: LessWrong: 2020 Email: 2135 The web: 2095 Y Combinator: 2045 Google: 2069 Microsoft: 2135 USA: 2732 Britain: 4862
These don't seem unreasonable.
I'm not sure that this method works with something that doesn't exist coming into existence. Would we say that we expect a 75% chance that someone will solve the problems of the EmDrive by 2057? That we'll have seasteading by 2117?
I can't see any plausible reason to predict that Microsoft will last longer than Google or that Britain will last longer than the USA.
In general, I tend to assume that recent history is more relevant to future prediction than older history, a sort of generalized informal Markov assumption if you wish, therefore trying to predict how long things will last based only on their age is likely to yield incorrect results.