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PeerGynt comments on LINK: An example of the Pink Flamingo, the obvious-yet-overlooked cousin of the Black Swan - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: polymathwannabe 05 November 2015 04:55PM

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Comment author: PeerGynt 05 November 2015 06:50:20PM *  3 points [-]

Could you specify whether you want answers as percentage probability, probabilities, odds, or expected number of launches? My answer was intended as a percentage

Comment author: tim 06 November 2015 07:26:49AM 1 point [-]

Yeah, I was fortunate enough to enter a percent sign after my estimate which resulted in an explicit warning, but an open-ended text box is not a great way to structure this poll.

Comment author: HungryHobo 06 November 2015 01:34:53PM 0 points [-]

I just used the standard less-wrong probability poll.

http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Comment_formatting#Probability_Poll

edited the comment to include the description.

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