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ChristianKl comments on LINK: An example of the Pink Flamingo, the obvious-yet-overlooked cousin of the Black Swan - Less Wrong Discussion
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Having a high number of policemen seems to be good for having lower crime rates. Giving those policemen the task to go after drugs on the other hand isn't. The Portuguese model of dealing with drugs is much better.
The tough on crime model also doesn't lead to lower recidivism rates. It would make more sense to incentive prisons to produces lower recidivism rates.