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entirelyuseless comments on [Link] A rational response to the Paris attacks and ISIS - Less Wrong Discussion
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Actually, I would love it if politicians and analysts used actual numbers. Then, we can check the accuracy of their forecasts. The hard part is getting them pinned down on some numbers. If we can get numeracy and probabilistic thinking into the political system, it seems that we would be much better off as it would allow us to gather real data. What do you think?
That may be desirable but it doesn't make unrealistic numbers any more realistic. The US has made over 3,000 airstrikes in Syria, and ISIS does not have anywhere near 300,000 people with them. Of course, you said "report of an airstrike," and not "airstrike," but presumably most attacks have been reported at least in local media there.
What I said was report of an airstrike that killed civilians - not a simple airstrike. An airstrike killing civilians reported in prominent Muslim media is a great recruiting tool