I'd prefer they do some than not at all. Then, they would improve over time, as research by Tetlock and others shows.
I'd prefer they do some than not at all.
I'd prefer they first figure out the limits of their competence before starting to act on their Fermi estimates. And Tetlock's sample is not quite general public.
Here's my op-ed that uses long-term orientation, probabilistic thinking, numeracy, consider the alternative, reaching our actual goals, avoiding intuitive emotional reactions and attention bias, and other rationality techniques to suggest more rational responses to the Paris attacks and the ISIS threat. It's published in the Sunday edition of The Plain Dealer, a major newspaper (16th in the US). This is part of my broader project, Intentional Insights, of conveying rational thinking, including about politics, to a broad audience to raise the sanity waterline.