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gjm comments on [Link] A rational response to the Paris attacks and ISIS - Less Wrong Discussion

-1 Post author: Gleb_Tsipursky 23 November 2015 01:47AM

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Comment author: gjm 28 November 2015 12:35:45PM 1 point [-]

How do you know?

(The most obvious example of US willingness to be sufficiently brutal seems like Vietnam, which wasn't a responding success.)

Comment author: polymathwannabe 29 November 2015 04:39:01PM *  -1 points [-]

Let's steelman VoiceOfRa's argument and choose the nuking of Japan as an example of the U.S. using sufficient brutality. While it is true that the threat of the Japanese Empire was successfully ended, it inevitably spawned a dozen other problems in other scenarios. Most notably, it paved the way for the Cold War. The madness that was the latter half of the 20th century could have been avoided if neither part had felt scared enough to engage in a spiraling arms race by building up their nuclear arsenals.

The same logic has been repeated elsewhere: Pakistan only started developing nuclear weapons because India did, and India only did so because they were afraid of China, and China only developed nukes because they were afraid the Americans would defend Taiwan with their own bombs. As soon as you use "sufficient brutality" and prove yourself to be dangerous, you will prompt everyone else to become more dangerous. It's the same stupid logic by which everyone buys a big, fuel-thirsty car because they're afraid to be crushed by all the other big, fuel-thirsty cars already in the streets.

In the case of ISIS, let's say the U.S. gets fed up with the situation and drops nukes on strategic Iraqi and Syrian cities. ISIS is wiped off the map. Good! Next thing you know, Iran will panic and get its own nukes, the Saudis will respond by getting their own, Russia will defend the Assad regime with everything they've got, and who knows what the remaining jihadi groups will do. It's just not worth it.

Edited to add: Moreover, as soon as Iran and Saudi Arabia openly display their new nuclear capability, Israel is bound to do something very stupid.

Comment author: Jiro 29 November 2015 07:05:03PM 2 points [-]

While it is true that the threat of the Japanese Empire was successfully ended, it inevitably spawned a dozen other problems in other scenarios.

By these standards, pretty much everything one does of any consequence in international relations spawns a dozen other problems.

As soon as you use "sufficient brutality" and prove yourself to be dangerous, you will prompt everyone else to become more dangerous.

Everyone else is quite capable and willing to become more dangerous without any prompting from us. Becoming dangerous is useful for its own sake, not just as a response to others being dangerous.

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 30 November 2015 03:14:02AM *  1 point [-]

While it is true that the threat of the Japanese Empire was successfully ended, it inevitably spawned a dozen other problems in other scenarios. Most notably, it paved the way for the Cold War.

In the sense that Communism and the Free World wound up crashing once the common enemy was removed, yes. Your argument about nuclear weapons seems to boil down to arguing that if the US hadn't developed them, no one else would have. I'll let you clarify in case it's something not quite this silly.

let's say the U.S. gets fed up with the situation and drops nukes on strategic Iraqi and Syrian cities.

You don't have to go that far. How about having the government not treat rumors that an interrogator may have flushed a Koran down the toilet as a moral crisis.

Next thing you know, Iran will panic and get its own nukes,

Um, Iran is already developing nukes as fast as it can, despite the US not being very brutal.