V_V comments on The Growth of My Pessimism: Transhumanism, Immortalism, Effective Altruism. - Less Wrong Discussion
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Beware the Dunning–Kruger effect.
Looking at the big picture, you could also say that there convincing evidence for a cap on the lifespan of a biological organism. Heck, some trees have been alive for over 10,000 years! Yet, once you look at the nitty-gritty details of biomedical research, it becomes clear that even adding just a few decades to the human lifespan is a very hard problem and researchers still largely don't know how to solve it.
It's the same for AGI. Maybe truly super-human AGI is physically impossible due to complexity reasons, but even if it is possible, developing it is a very hard problem and researchers still largely don't know how to solve it.
I think you misunderstood my claim for sarcasm. I actually think I don`t know much about AI (not nearly enough to make a robust assessment).