Diego points to a variety of resources that all make approximately the same point, which I'll attempt to summarize: If you apply probabilistic "outside view" reasoning to your projects and your career, in practice this means copying approaches that have worked well for other people. But if it's clear that an approach is working well, then others will be copying it too, and you won't outperform. So your only realistic shot at outperforming is to find a useful and underused "inside view" way of looking at things.

(FYI, I've found that keeping a notebook has been very useful for generating & recording interesting new ideas. If you do it for long enough you can start to develop your own ontology for understanding areas you're interested in. Don't worry too much about your notebook's structure & organization: embrace that it will grow organically & unpredictably.)