John_Maxwell_IV comments on The Growth of My Pessimism: Transhumanism, Immortalism, Effective Altruism. - Less Wrong Discussion
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Depends on the investment class. Even Charlie Munger (Warren Buffet's partner) says "If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we'd have a pretty average record."
Yes, even if success in the domain is basically about avoiding mistakes, I imagine that if there are huge winners in the domain they got there by finding some new innovative way to get their rate of mistakes down.