This is one of those "depends" pieces of advice. At some schools, the entire Freshman year GPA is completely forgiven, ignored, or given specific exemptions in how it's factored into the final GPA. In this case, why not go for broke? I always suggest starting out with the hardest thing and then ratcheting down instead of vice versa.

In reality, I think people usually underestimate themselves. It's better to try the hardest possible path and then find your limits, than be cautious and never discover them.