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James_Miller comments on [Link] Introducing OpenAI - Less Wrong Discussion
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The variance of outcomes over the next few decades just went way up.
As a result of this development, and assuming some level of collaboration between MIRI and OpenAI, do you believe the "discount rate" for MIRI donations has increased significantly (i.e. it is even more important to give now than later)?
Good question. I'm not sure. Given diminishing marginal returns if MIRI and OpenAI are doing the same things then the value of giving to MIRI goes way down. In contrast, if OpenAI is going to speed up the development of AI without putting too much thought into friendly AI, then MIRI and OpenAI are complements and it's more important than ever to give lots of money quickly to MIRI.
Another factor to consider: If AGI is 30+ years away, we're likely to have another "AI winter". Saving money to donate during that winter has some value.