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Tem42 comments on Estimate the Cost of Immortality - Less Wrong Discussion

-4 Post author: Algernoq 13 December 2015 11:38AM

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Comment author: Tem42 14 December 2015 10:20:35PM 0 points [-]

Is voluntarily starving to death a drawback?

Comment author: Lumifer 14 December 2015 10:24:34PM 5 points [-]

Voluntarily..? They don't expect to starve to death, they just expect that while they do their meaningful conscious-expanding profound activities, someone else will muck around in the dirt planting and harvesting. Food comes from a store, dontcha know that? and without money everything in the store is free.

Comment author: gjm 15 December 2015 10:07:58AM 2 points [-]

There's nothing in the scenario described by Xyrik, or the scenario described by Tem42, that says the people involved are doing only "meaningful conscious-expanding profound activities" and neglecting the necessities of life. (Nor, so far as I know, was that the intention of Marx whom you cited as a prominent exponent of similar ideas.)

Trying to do what Xyrik describes might produce a lot of starving-to-death (1) because no one has yet come up with a coordination mechanism better than markets for deciding how much effort to put into what, and (2) because many people will not in fact want to work hard without the prospect of personal gain. But #1 has nothing to do with what you describe here and #2 amounts to considering a different more plausible scenario rather than the (admittedly unlikely) one raised by Xyrik.

Comment author: Lumifer 15 December 2015 03:38:08PM 2 points [-]

There's nothing in the scenario described by Xyrik, or the scenario described by Tem42, that says the people involved are doing only "meaningful conscious-expanding profound activities" and neglecting the necessities of life.

The whole point of the communist paradise is freedom from need. That, as you correctly point out, leads to an incentives problem and a coordination problem. The lack of incentives (which, I think, exists in Xyrik's scenario as the alternatives are... much less palatable) leads to people over-doing pleasant things (meaningful, profound, conscious-expanding -- or simply hedonic) and under-doing unpleasant things (e.g. mucking in the dirt). At the current level of technology a society without appropriate incentives will soon start to starve.

It works for small communities which mooch off larger societies (hippy communes, Burning Man, etc.), but convert the entire world to this system and I would recommend getting a lot of ammo and beans ASAP.

Comment author: gjm 15 December 2015 03:54:37PM 1 point [-]

The whole point of the communist paradise is freedom from need.

Perhaps. (I'm not convinced; I can imagine someone saying "In a communist system we will all be slightly poorer because central planning doesn't work as well as markets, but it would be worth it because of the reduction in inequality" or "... because we would all have the lovely warm glow of knowing we were working together" or something. For the avoidance of doubt, I am not agreeing with those claims.)

The lack of incentives (which, I think, exists in Xyrik's scenario [...])

My interpretation of Xyrik's question was more like "Imagine that by some unspecified magic we have solved that problem, so that everyone willingly pitches in to do their bit. What are the drawbacks then?"

I agree that what we're then being asked to postulate is really improbable, and can't think of any plausible non-horrible ways to make it so, but I think the question is a reasonable one to ask anyway. (E.g., perhaps Xyrik is writing some science fiction about a hypothetical race genetically engineered to be much more willing to cooperate with one another than humans typically are, and wants to know what might happen if they tried communism.)

And I agree that if Xyrik were proposing to try this on a large scale in the real world the appropriate response would be somewhere between laughter and terror, depending on our estimation of how far s/he could actually get in making it happen. But that's not the question at issue.

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 16 December 2015 03:30:13AM 1 point [-]

My interpretation of Xyrik's question was more like "Imagine that by some unspecified magic we have solved that problem, so that everyone willingly pitches in to do their bit. What are the drawbacks then?"

Depends on the nature of the magic. Most of the obvious ones I can think of basically require the destruction of all individuality.

Comment author: Lumifer 15 December 2015 05:14:42PM *  1 point [-]

I can imagine someone saying "In a communist system we will all be slightly poorer because central planning doesn't work as well as markets, but it would be worth it because of the reduction in inequality"

Using Marxist terminology, that's not communism, that's mere socialism. Communism is pretty much defined by "To each according to his need".

"Imagine that by some unspecified magic we have solved that problem, so that everyone willingly pitches in to do their bit.

I don't see this anywhere in Xyrik's comment. I am not sure that at the time of writing it he was even aware of the incentives problem.

And once you start specifying elven magic as the reason a particular problem doesn't exist, you can't have any unsolvable problems because elven magic, done.

Comment author: gjm 15 December 2015 11:27:42PM 1 point [-]

I don't see this anywhere in Xyrik's comment.

It's what I took this to mean:

obviously this is extremely hypothetical as it's virtually impossible to get all human life on Earth to actually do that

but maybe you understood it differently.

you can't have any unsolvable problems because elven magic, done.

I don't see any obvious absurdity about saying "suppose problem A only resolved by elven magic; then what would happen to problems B, C, and D?".

Comment author: RichardKennaway 15 December 2015 11:46:34PM 2 points [-]

I don't see any obvious absurdity about saying "suppose problem A only resolved by elven magic; then what would happen to problems B, C, and D?".

I do see an obvious incoherence. Xyrik's scenario was;

a hypothetical situation in which everyone on the planet decides to temporarily get rid of the concept of money or currency, and pool our collective resources and ideas without worrying about who owes who

This is a highly complex scenario, made apparently simple because the complexity is hidden inside the words. What is the problem A that is the only thing hypothetically solved? The "get rid of the concept of money or currency", the "pooling collective resources and ideas", the "without worrying about who owes who". What do these look like -- what do you see if you follow a few people around in the hypothetical world? What do these phrases mean, to be able to say, these things B, C, and D are not part of that? How can you say what would happen to them, without any description of what the elven magic actually did to produce something described by A?

The scenario is too vague for these questions to be answered.

Comment author: gjm 16 December 2015 12:48:45AM 1 point [-]

Yup, agreed, it's vague and that's bad. This seems to me an entirely different objection from "there's no point saying 'suppose such-and-such is dealt with by elven magic' because elven magic could solve all the other problems too".

Comment author: gjm 15 December 2015 11:30:26PM 0 points [-]

that's not communism, that's mere socialism. Communism is pretty much defined by "To each according to his need".

I'm not sure I understand your objection. I wasn't imagining anything other than an attempt at "To each according to his need". That might still leave many people poorer than under capitalism. (I said "all" but that was silly, and maybe that's the cause of any misunderstanding; I should have said something like "we will collectively be slightly poorer", which is what I actually meant.)

Comment author: Lumifer 16 December 2015 01:34:13AM *  1 point [-]

That might still leave many people poorer than under capitalism.

Nope. The promise of communism is the satisfaction of all your needs, not just satisfaction of what we can afford to, given the limited amount of stuff/services which we have available. It is supposed to be a place of plenty, not just a place where thin gruel is shared fairly.

Comment author: gjm 16 December 2015 03:11:23AM 0 points [-]

I suppose you can, if you want, define "communism" so narrowly that nothing counts as communism unless it brings about an early paradise of perfect plenty. To me, that seems much too narrow a definition.

Imagine that someone tells Karl Marx that the economic system he advocates will not bring about a permanent end to all kinds of want. Which is the more likely response, supposing he believes them (of at least is willing, arguendo, to stipulate that they're right)? "Oh, then it turns out that what I've been advocating isn't communism after all" or "Oh, then it turns out that communism doesn't work as well as I hoped"?

Comment author: Lumifer 16 December 2015 05:43:41AM 0 points [-]

I suppose you can, if you want, define "communism" so narrowly that nothing counts as communism unless it brings about an early paradise of perfect plenty.

This is the canonical, traditional, classic, orthodox, and correct definition of communism in Marxism.

Imagine that someone tells Karl Marx...

I feel we're veering into the If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle territory...

Comment author: Xyrik 18 December 2015 10:14:39AM 0 points [-]

That was indeed what I was proposing. Like I said, this system were to assume that somehow humans solved that problem and are all willing to pitch in. I guess that would probably take some severe altering to our brains, potentially do the point to which we're all some hive-mind, which would be a debatable downside.

Comment author: Xyrik 18 December 2015 10:29:13AM *  0 points [-]

The lack of incentives (which, I think, exists in Xyrik's scenario as the alternatives are... much less palatable)

Basically the idea is that everyone realizes that if we do this that we could vastly accelerate the speed at which we develop, and thus solve many of our problems such as over-population, food, etc. by spreading among the stars, after which people could once again live a more free life and create their own systems, including but not requiring a governing body.

Comment author: entirelyuseless 18 December 2015 02:52:43PM 2 points [-]

Do what? Let's suppose we abolish money this evening. What are you going to do tomorrow?

Comment author: Lumifer 18 December 2015 04:02:46PM 1 point [-]

Basically the idea is that everyone realizes that if we do this that we could vastly accelerate the speed at which we develop

This seems obviously, patently false to me.

Even if you have in mind a far-reaching remaking of humanity into enthusiastic slaves of some god-like entity, I don't think that it would either "vastly accelerate the speed" or would lead to "more free life" in the future.

Comment author: ChristianKl 18 December 2015 03:19:43PM 1 point [-]

Basically the idea is that everyone realizes that if we do this that we could vastly accelerate the speed at which we develop, and thus solve many of our problems such as over-population, food, etc. by spreading among the stars

Yet you present no arguments why you believe such as acceleration will happen. Especially when it comes to the productions of commodieties such as food money driven markets are very efficient. The market consistently manages to kill companies that don't effectively produce goods.

Comment author: passive_fist 20 December 2015 07:56:12AM *  -1 points [-]

The problem with that viewpoint is that you assume that the only reason - or, even, the most important reason - that people work is to make money.

But our understanding of human behavior tells us that other factors like status games, feelings of personal achievement or 'having a purpose in life', and so on are equally as important, if not more important, than the money-making aspect of work. Further, something that someone considers 'work' could be considered enjoyment by someone else.

Believe it or not, many people farm or tend gardens or animals simply because they enjoy doing so. They may even give away their produce for free. I currently have several trees and I pick and give away their fruit for free. I used to have chickens and I gave away their eggs for free. Both of these I did because I enjoyed doing them, and the hard aspects of the work averaged out. Of course I am not saying that a system based on everyone doing this would be sustainable. It wouldn't. It would probably lead to food shortages. However, it offers a counterpoint to the idea that humans will always choose meditation or video games or somesuch over 'mucking in the dirt' if given the choice.

I think Xyrik's scenario is too radical but a system of universal basic income where everyone gets a minimal amount of money sufficient for survival is quite tenable and sustainable. In such a system, you don't have to work to survive, but working produces a better, more satisfactory form of survival. Experience shows that systems like these do not run into problems of food shortages (in fact quite the contrary).

Comment author: Lumifer 20 December 2015 10:04:45PM *  2 points [-]

you assume that the only reason - or, even, the most important reason - that people work is to make money.

No, I do not. You're wrong.

I assume that the work that people do for money is important for the society and that a lot of it wouldn't get done if people worked just for pleasure. Basically, without money you'd get too many DJs and too few plumbers. Money fixes that balance problem.

Believe it or not, many people farm or tend gardens or animals simply because they enjoy doing so.

Of course, so what? Small-scale agriculture is remarkably inefficient. Specifically, it cannot feed the current population.

that humans will always choose meditation or video games or somesuch over 'mucking in the dirt' if given the choice.

Not always. But too few people will choose mucking in the dirt and without money I'm not sure how are you going to persuade a sufficient number of people to go and do what they don't like.

Experience shows that systems like these do not run into problems of food shortages (in fact quite the contrary).

Do tell me about that experience. I'm curious.

Comment author: Xyrik 23 December 2015 11:20:07AM 0 points [-]

Not always. But too few people will choose mucking in the dirt and without money I'm not sure how are you going to persuade a sufficient number of people to go and do what they don't like.

That's a very good point, and I hadn't thought of that. This was basically why I made the post. Although I think I was mentioning somewhere that a scenario like this would only actually work if we had some AGI that could reliably judge who needed what resources when, in order to further the overall human endeavor.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 23 December 2015 02:18:50PM 2 points [-]

Although I think I was mentioning somewhere that a scenario like this would only actually work if we had some AGI that could reliably judge who needed what resources when, in order to further the overall human endeavor.

Wouldn't the AGI also need the ability to compel obedience to its diktats? Or do you imagine that everyone will do whatever it tells them to do because it must be the best thing to do?

Comment author: passive_fist 20 December 2015 10:56:06PM *  0 points [-]

Basically, without money you'd get too many DJs and too few plumbers. Money fixes that balance problem.

Money itself doesn't fix that balance problem. It's the allocation of money. I don't disagree with the idea that some type of work is unpleasant and necessary for society so there has to be some system of incentives to make people do that type of work. I disagree with the notion that the 'communist paradise' necessarily reduces such incentives to the point that society starves and dies.

As I said, I think Xyrik's scenario (evenly dividing wealth among everyone) is too radical. But you could definitely engineer systems where people are freed from basic survival needs yet still have incentives to work for the benefit of society. I see no contradiction here.

Of course, so what? Small-scale agriculture is remarkably inefficient. Specifically, it cannot feed the current population.

Again, I already mentioned this.

Do tell me about that experience. I'm curious.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_pilots

Comment author: Lumifer 20 December 2015 11:05:54PM *  2 points [-]

I disagree with the notion that the 'communist paradise' necessarily reduces such incentives to the point that society starves and dies.

What actually happens is, of course, a bit different. If you take money out of the picture (as e.g. the USSR, Communist China, etc. did), another currency becomes dominant. That currency is power and the society becomes reliant on just force to make things happen. Recall that being unemployed was a criminal offense in the USSR.

Basic_income_pilots

Sigh. Let me quote myself from upthread:

It works for small communities which mooch off larger societies

Comment author: passive_fist 21 December 2015 12:27:09AM -1 points [-]

Sigh. Let me quote myself from upthread:

It works for small communities which mooch off larger societies

Not at all. It's clear that you didn't even look at the examples. A lot of those examples were largely self-contained. For instance, the one in Madhya Pradesh was done on a set of villages that provided their own food and necessities.

Comment author: Lumifer 21 December 2015 02:59:31AM *  1 point [-]

For instance, the one in Madhya Pradesh was done on a set of villages that provided their own food and necessities.

Did they provide their own food, no trade with the outside world? I think you're mistaken.

The experiment in Madhya Pradesh provided a small unconditional cash payment to everyone in a set of villages. The outcome was entirely unsurprising -- people in those villages became a bit richer and spent that money to improve their lives.

There was some positive effect on the productivity of people in these villages -- I quote the UNICEF report:

In the tribal villages, perhaps the biggest impact of the project was to enable small farmers to spend more time and also invest on their own farms as opposed to working as wage labourers.

which is fine and is a legitimate advance. However all this is, basically, injection of a bit of capital into a very very poor village and it does not tell us much about what would happen in a more advanced society with the basic income that is, presumably, sufficient to live on.

Keep in mind that basic income is redistribution -- you need to create the wealth to start with.

Comment author: entirelyuseless 20 December 2015 01:31:55PM 0 points [-]

What experience are you talking about in relation to a system of universal basic income?

Comment author: Tem42 14 December 2015 10:26:02PM 0 points [-]

Oh. I had assumed that "not planning for catering" fell in the "odd cases" category, but maybe I overestimate humans.

Comment author: mwengler 15 December 2015 04:01:03PM 3 points [-]

Oh. I had assumed that "not planning for catering" fell in the "odd cases" category, but maybe I overestimate humans.

Its not that you overestimate humans but that you massively underestimate that amount of thought, work, and organization that results in a store of fresh healthy abundant food available for your nutrition. That complex chain involving thousands and millions of people, some producing the oil to lubricate the gears of the tractor or the delivery truck, some paving the roads, some setting standards for fuel composition and performance so that some others can build motors to drive the pieces, while still others keep accurate records of who "owns" which pieces of land so there is no confusion about who gets to harvest the food months after it is planted. It involves a bunch more things, too.

It is not that it is impossible to organize this without ownership. It is just that until you explain HOW you organize this without ownership, it is impossible to determine how such a system without ownership compares to the current one.

Comment author: Tem42 15 December 2015 09:23:37PM -2 points [-]

It is just that until you explain HOW you organize this without ownership, it is impossible to determine how such a system without ownership compares to the current one.

To a a close approximation, the new system looks just like the old system, just without the paychecks. Assuming that workers know their value (big assumption), then the question becomes "to create the most Xyriking, should I do my job or change to a job producing Xyrikes?"

Caviar producers should change jobs; grain producers should not; salt producers should determine what exactly is meant by "temporarily" before making a decision.

Taking the hypothetical as it is given, I think it is fair to assume that no one will quit their job simply because it is unpleasant or because someone else could do it -- those don't really count as working together (or "pooling resources ... without worrying").

Human resources include skills like planning, logistics, common sense, and health and safety. Of course, it is possible that good planning skills are so limited that they must be devoted primarily to producing Xyrikes, and not keeping people healthy.

Comment author: Lumifer 15 December 2015 03:53:44PM 1 point [-]

"not planning for catering"

It is interesting how you interpret "make sure we have enough food to not starve" as "planning for catering" X-/