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passive_fist comments on Estimate the Cost of Immortality - Less Wrong Discussion

-4 Post author: Algernoq 13 December 2015 11:38AM

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Comment author: passive_fist 20 December 2015 10:56:06PM *  0 points [-]

Basically, without money you'd get too many DJs and too few plumbers. Money fixes that balance problem.

Money itself doesn't fix that balance problem. It's the allocation of money. I don't disagree with the idea that some type of work is unpleasant and necessary for society so there has to be some system of incentives to make people do that type of work. I disagree with the notion that the 'communist paradise' necessarily reduces such incentives to the point that society starves and dies.

As I said, I think Xyrik's scenario (evenly dividing wealth among everyone) is too radical. But you could definitely engineer systems where people are freed from basic survival needs yet still have incentives to work for the benefit of society. I see no contradiction here.

Of course, so what? Small-scale agriculture is remarkably inefficient. Specifically, it cannot feed the current population.

Again, I already mentioned this.

Do tell me about that experience. I'm curious.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_pilots

Comment author: Lumifer 20 December 2015 11:05:54PM *  2 points [-]

I disagree with the notion that the 'communist paradise' necessarily reduces such incentives to the point that society starves and dies.

What actually happens is, of course, a bit different. If you take money out of the picture (as e.g. the USSR, Communist China, etc. did), another currency becomes dominant. That currency is power and the society becomes reliant on just force to make things happen. Recall that being unemployed was a criminal offense in the USSR.

Basic_income_pilots

Sigh. Let me quote myself from upthread:

It works for small communities which mooch off larger societies

Comment author: passive_fist 21 December 2015 12:27:09AM -1 points [-]

Sigh. Let me quote myself from upthread:

It works for small communities which mooch off larger societies

Not at all. It's clear that you didn't even look at the examples. A lot of those examples were largely self-contained. For instance, the one in Madhya Pradesh was done on a set of villages that provided their own food and necessities.

Comment author: Lumifer 21 December 2015 02:59:31AM *  1 point [-]

For instance, the one in Madhya Pradesh was done on a set of villages that provided their own food and necessities.

Did they provide their own food, no trade with the outside world? I think you're mistaken.

The experiment in Madhya Pradesh provided a small unconditional cash payment to everyone in a set of villages. The outcome was entirely unsurprising -- people in those villages became a bit richer and spent that money to improve their lives.

There was some positive effect on the productivity of people in these villages -- I quote the UNICEF report:

In the tribal villages, perhaps the biggest impact of the project was to enable small farmers to spend more time and also invest on their own farms as opposed to working as wage labourers.

which is fine and is a legitimate advance. However all this is, basically, injection of a bit of capital into a very very poor village and it does not tell us much about what would happen in a more advanced society with the basic income that is, presumably, sufficient to live on.

Keep in mind that basic income is redistribution -- you need to create the wealth to start with.

Comment author: passive_fist 21 December 2015 03:28:17AM *  0 points [-]

Did they provide their own food

Indeed they did. This is mentioned in the report.

In fact cash-grant villages were more likely to grow their own food than control villages. A large part of the cash grants were spent on procuring better seeds and upgrading their livestock. Cash-grant villages were also more likely to undertake productive economic activity like starting businesses.

They did undertake trade with other villages, if they wanted to.

However all this is, basically, injection of a bit of capital into a very very poor village and it does not tell us much about what would happen in a more advanced society with the basic income that is, presumably, sufficient to live on.

I think the fact that you say this hints at what may be the crux of the problem. Sure, cultural and socioeconomic differences are a huge factor, but believe it or not, 'advanced societies' do have poor people, and lots of them, and experiments like these hint that a universal basic income cannot simply be dismissed as 'eliminating incentives and leading to mass starvation.'

UBI is obviously not going to do much for rich people.

Comment author: Lumifer 21 December 2015 05:19:11AM 1 point [-]

In fact cash-grant villages were more likely to grow their own food than control villages. A large part of the cash grants were spent on procuring better seeds and upgrading their livestock.

It's not clear that that the villagers were "more likely" to grow food for their own consumption rather than growing cash crops to sell. But if you want to dive into that level of detail, I would like to see the original report with all the data. I don't particulary trust this UNICEF report which looks a bit biased to me.

but believe it or not, 'advanced societies' do have poor people, and lots of them, and experiments like these hint that a universal basic income cannot simply be dismissed as 'eliminating incentives and leading to mass starvation.'

I'm not saying that UBI is a bad idea. I'm not saying it's a good idea, either. At this point I don't know -- I can see both good points and bad points and it's not clear to me how they will balance out in real life. I suspect the details of implementation will make a lot of difference. Those "pilots" that you mention are much too limited to draw any conclusions.

And please go easy on straw, no one claimed that UBI would lead to mass starvation. A full-blown scheme of no property, no money, etc. is likely to and that's what the "will starve" claim referred to.