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gjm comments on Open thread, Dec. 21 - Dec. 27, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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If you start with inconsistent assumptions, you get inconsistent conclusions. If you believe P(H)=1, P(A&B&C)=1, and P(H|A) etc. are all <1, then you have already made a mistake. Why are you blaming this on Bayesian confirmation theory?