= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
gjm comments on Open thread, Dec. 21 - Dec. 27, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (230)
So what if p(H) = 1, p(H|A) = .4, p(H|B) = .3, and p(H|C) = .3? The evidence would suggest all are wrong. But I have also determined that A, B, and C are the only possible explanations for H. Clearly there is something wrong with my measurement, but I have no method of correcting for this problem.
If you start with inconsistent assumptions, you get inconsistent conclusions. If you believe P(H)=1, P(A&B&C)=1, and P(H|A) etc. are all <1, then you have already made a mistake. Why are you blaming this on Bayesian confirmation theory?