Where is your confidence coming from, first principles?

Well, yes of course. Cox' theorem. Journals are starting to refute papers based on the "p<0.05" principle. Many studies in medicine and psychology cannot be replicated. Scientists are using inferior analysis methods when better are available just because they were not taught to.
I do say there's a desperate need to divulge Bayesian thinking.

Jaynes died in 1997. Bayesian networks (the correct bit of math to explain what is going on with Bell inequalities) were written up in book form in 1988, and were known about in various special case forms long before that.

I wasn't referring to that. Jaynes knew that quantum mechanics was incompatible with the epistemic view of probability, and from his writing, while never explicit, it's clear that he was thinking about a hidden variables model.
Undisputable violation of the Bell inequalities were performed only this year. Causality was published in 2001. We still don't know how to stitch epistemic probabilities and quantum causality.
What I'm saying is that the field was in motion when Jaynes died, and we still don't know a large deal about it. As I said, we cannot ask anyone not to hold crazy ideas from time to time.