Basically I understand from that, that your past efforts didn't bring you to the weight you like to have. That's similar to Eliezer who lost weight by doing the Shangri La diet but who is still overweight.

No. I chose to lose weight after an injury made it impossible for me to powerlift. I've fluctuated some depending on fitness goals. Now I want to lose weight and perhaps try some endurance-based competitions. I typically go on 4-12 week strict plans where I use weight as one metric... but I'm not terribly concerned about my weight, focusing instead on overall fitness levels.

I have gained fat in the past due to general apathy, though. I lost it predictably when I paid attention to diet and exercise.

How about making an explicit prediction about your weight/body-fat/BMI or waist circumference in a year and putting that prediction on predictionbook? Maybe relative changes if you don't like to be public about the actual number.

I've used Stickk in the past. It works well and often helps me overachieve.

You have other active ingridents besides calories being burned in sport.

We're just missing each other on this point.

None of that matters. You just need a way to burn calories. Doesn't have to be exercise according to any definition.