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username2 comments on Voiceofra is banned - Less Wrong Discussion
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This doesn't work for new posters.
There no good reason for the votes of new posters to count much. If they don't there are less sockpuppet problems.
Why do you think that? When you have no prior, either assume P(up) = P(down), or (better) use the priors gotten by averaging all votes by all users. That's standard practice.