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Lumifer comments on Open Thread, Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: Clarity 27 December 2015 02:21PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 04 January 2016 06:11:30PM 0 points [-]

That's the signalling issue

Why do you call that "signaling"? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.

If you only have a few experts in a prediction market, you don't have enough liquidity to update your predictions. With prediction polls, that isn't a problem.

I don't know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.

Comment author: [deleted] 04 January 2016 06:16:51PM 0 points [-]

Why do you call that "signaling"? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.

Because you're going by the signal (the college name), not the actual thing you're measuring for (forecasting ability).

I don't know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.

I meant a problem for frequent updates. Obviously, less participants will lead to less accurate forecasts - but by brier weighting and extremizing you can still get fairly decent results.

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