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turchin comments on Levels of global catastrophes: from mild to extinction - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: turchin 27 December 2015 05:26PM

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Comment author: ChristianKl 27 December 2015 10:27:55PM *  1 point [-]

That article says:

Global warming of that magnitude would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans.

That would be really bad but it's not the same as total extinction.

timeframe (2030)

I don't think that's the timeframe of the LW community as shown by our census.

Comment author: turchin 27 December 2015 10:43:33PM *  0 points [-]

timeframe (2030)

I checked the timeframe in Arctic-news.com. They said that things will become serious after 2030, but extinction will happen around 2060. It is shown on last graph in http://arctic-news.blogspot.ru/p/the-mechanism.html As I remember the LW census, it put AI on 2060? Could you remind me exact data?

Comment author: ChristianKl 28 December 2015 12:05:42AM *  1 point [-]

As I remember the LW census, it put AI on 2060? Could you remind me exact data?

(in the form mean + stdev (1st quartile, 2nd quartile, 3rd quartile) [n = number responding]))
From 2013:
Singularity year: 1.67E +11 + 4.089E+12 (2060, 2090, 2150) [n = 1195]
From 2014:
Singularity: 2143.44 + 356.643 (2060, 2090, 2150) [1177]

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