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ChristianKl comments on Open Thread, January 4-10, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Let's say we talk about an average sensible person.
I'm not exactly sure about this subject but it feels to me like it would be good to move from what prediction book does to something like this.
When reading the IPCC report I would be very interested in something like this to get a better sense of the state of the science.