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Val comments on Are we failing the ideological Turing test in the case of ISIS? (a crazy ideas thread) - Less Wrong Discussion
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Of the sort that casebash assures us cannot exist? The imaginary competence of fictional rational heroes? Top human genius level?
No. These all amount to assuming a falsehood.
Another straw falsehood to set beside the first one. All of this rules out from the start any consideration of ISIS as they actually are. They are real people with a mission, no more and no less intelligent than anyone else who succeeds in doing what they have done so far.
There is no mystery about what ISIS wants. They tell the world in their glossy magazine, available in many languages, including English (see the link at the foot of that page). They tell the world in every announcement and proclamation.
"Rationalist", however, seem incapable of believing that anyone ever means what they say. Nothing is what it is, but a signal of something else.
I have not seen any reason to suppose that they do not intend exactly what they say, just as Hitler did in "Mein Kampf". They are fighting to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world, Allahu akbar. All else is strategy and tactics. If their current funding model is unsustainable, they will change it as circumstances require. If their recruitment methods falter, they will search for other ways.
More useful questions would be: given their supreme goal (to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world), what should they do to accomplish that? And how should we (by which I mean, everyone who wants Islamic universalism to fail) act to prevent them?
I recommend a reading of Max Frisch's play "The Fire Raisers".
Of course it is! That's the main point. Did it really not come across what I meant when I wrote that my goal was not to defend or attack the elements of the list? These are the most common theories about what isis wants, this is why they are in the list in the first place. I only listed #1 to counteract the others which were assuming more intelligence and rationalism from them most people would give credit.
I'm open to suggestions how this topic could be improved to better serve its intended purpose: to gather weird and unusual theories about what the true agenda of isis was, were they much more rational and more intelligent than most people give credit to them.
The theory that they want what they say they want is missing, but I don't know what population you've been looking at to say what is most common.
Your first three paragraphs suggested to me that you were interested in discussing the reality of ISIS. All weird and unusual theories are rendered false off the bat by their frankness about their aims and their actions in pursuing them. This is hearing hoofbeats and inviting people to consider what sort of weird and unusual creatures could possibly be causing them.
The whole post looks like a determination to fail the ideological Turing test.
Ultimate goals are orthogonal to instrumental rationality and intelligence. Why does assuming they are rational and intelligent make you distrustful of their stated goals?