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Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Are we failing the ideological Turing test in the case of ISIS? (a crazy ideas thread) - Less Wrong Discussion
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Of the sort that casebash assures us cannot exist? The imaginary competence of fictional rational heroes? Top human genius level?
No. These all amount to assuming a falsehood.
Another straw falsehood to set beside the first one. All of this rules out from the start any consideration of ISIS as they actually are. They are real people with a mission, no more and no less intelligent than anyone else who succeeds in doing what they have done so far.
There is no mystery about what ISIS wants. They tell the world in their glossy magazine, available in many languages, including English (see the link at the foot of that page). They tell the world in every announcement and proclamation.
"Rationalist", however, seem incapable of believing that anyone ever means what they say. Nothing is what it is, but a signal of something else.
I have not seen any reason to suppose that they do not intend exactly what they say, just as Hitler did in "Mein Kampf". They are fighting to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world, Allahu akbar. All else is strategy and tactics. If their current funding model is unsustainable, they will change it as circumstances require. If their recruitment methods falter, they will search for other ways.
More useful questions would be: given their supreme goal (to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world), what should they do to accomplish that? And how should we (by which I mean, everyone who wants Islamic universalism to fail) act to prevent them?
I recommend a reading of Max Frisch's play "The Fire Raisers".
I think that Val wants us to imagine that the elite of ISIS are smart guys who are well aware of the chances and risks of their plans, can place themselves in the shoes of their enemies and play them against each other (including usage of ideology) and likely look for the long time effect of their actions. And to think what their most likely motivations and goals are given the known facts.
Under those assumptions, it seems to be likely that their stated motivations and goals are the true ones. Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail, the likely reason for them trying anyway is religious (moral, etc).
Are they likely to fail? They are not going to fail unless the people who want them to fail (most of the world) make them fail. Being able to defeat them is not enough. They must actually be defeated. Is this going to happen?
Compare with startup founders. Most startups fail, yes? Therefore if every would-be startup founder is smart enough etc., then we don't get Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, ...
No-one ever won a war by wishing their enemies would recognise they can't win. ISIS have a cause for which they are not merely striving to become stronger or making an extraordinary effort, they are shutting up and doing the impossible.
"Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail"
Allah doesn't put his thumb on the scales?
If they think Allah is going to a lend a hand, they would feel certain of near term victory. If not, they likely would still feel certain of a long term victory.